Bitcoin is expected to hit a record high above $109,000 amid progress in US-China talks
Kyiv • UNN
Easing trade tensions between the US and China and a potential slowdown in US inflation could push Bitcoin to new highs, exceeding $109,350.
Bitcoin may soon reach a record high, triggering accelerated growth in the wider altcoin market, as easing trade tensions between the US and China may cause markets to react positively to a potential slowdown in the US April Consumer Price Index, CoinDesk reports, writes UNN.
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The United States has made progress on a trade deal with China after two days of high-level talks in Geneva, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamison Greer announced on Sunday. Both countries are expected to issue a joint statement on trade talks in Geneva later on Monday.
The US and China are close to signing a trade agreement - CNN11.05.25, 22:16 • 4518 views
Continued disinflation after the March figure in the US, as noted, could raise the stakes for a Fed rate cut, a bullish catalyst for a BTC rally to record highs above $110,000. On the other hand, a higher-than-expected CPI, as noted, could be ignored as retrospective, reflecting April tariffs and not taking into account easing trade tensions.
According to 10x Research, the consensus is that the overall CPI likely remained unchanged at 2.4% in April.
"If this expectation is met, the market may see the inflation report as positive. If negative headlines about tariffs are ignored, this week's inflation data could be a bullish catalyst," said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, CoinDesk.
"The CPI may be bullish and may bring new all-time highs," Thielen added.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, was trading at around $104,000, just 5.1% short of new highs above $109,350, according to CoinDesk data.
Since the beginning of April, BTC has shown an almost V-shaped recovery from $75,000, with prices rising 10% last week due to continued inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has registered net inflows for 20 consecutive trading days, raising over $5 billion in investor money, according to SoSoValue data. Last week, the US Federal Reserve kept the base borrowing cost unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while reiterating a data-dependent position on potential rate cuts. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave "dovish" hints, saying that the "basic picture of inflation is good," calling the inflationary impact of tariffs short-lived.
Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose 39% to $2,500 last week, its best performance since December 2020, according to TradingView. Other major altcoins such as XRP, DOGE, ADA and SOL rose 9.7%, 56%, 19% and 20% respectively.
According to HTX Research, there are no signs of speculative frenzy yet, which means the rally could continue.
"Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) remains stable in the 50-55% range, well below the extreme levels of 80%+ typically seen at the peak of past bull markets. Open interest in bitcoin futures on the CME is currently $14.8 billion, well below the peak of $20 billion seen during the 2020 Trump election period, indicating that leverage is still manageable," HTX Research said.
"As long as yields don't rise above 4.8% and ETF inflows remain stable, bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the $105,000-$115,000 range, awaiting the next breakout trigger," HTX added.