
Why is Trump going against the WHO and jeopardizing NATO? Expert opinion
Kyiv • UNN
Trump has begun the process of withdrawing the United States from the WHO and may increase pressure on NATO allies to increase defense spending. Experts explain how this will affect the international order and Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump continues to reduce US participation in international organizations, explaining that they are "ineffective" and cause financial losses to the US budget. At the same time, the president may increase pressure on NATO allies, insisting on increasing their defense spending to reduce the burden on the United States, UNN writes.
Trump again questioned the feasibility of US cooperation with international organizations. In particular, he announced the US withdrawal from the World Health Organization . During his first term, Trump has already withdrawn the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, the UN Human Rights Council, UNESCO, and a number of key treaties, citing the protection of American interests as a reason.
In a commentary to UNN, Maxim Yali, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, also noted that Trump's similar policy was observed even earlier, during his first term.
He does not believe in the effectiveness of international organizations, and has repeatedly criticized both the UN and NATO, and even more so UN agencies such as WHO, especially during the coronavirus pandemic. Therefore, we will now see the continued dismantling of the international order and those institutions that have not proven their effectiveness or have become much less effective than in the early stages, such as the Security Council or the UN in general
In addition, Trump repeatedly criticized NATO during his first term in office, in particular because of the failure of member states to fulfill their financial obligations. He accused the allies of spending less than 2% of GDP on defense, forcing the United States to cover the bulk of the costs. At the 2018 summit in Brussels, he even threatened to withdraw from NATO if the allies did not increase their spending.
"As for NATO, there are more risks for individual states. This is also a similar policy: Trump made such statements during the election campaign, calling on other member states to spend more on defense. This was during his first term, and even more so now that Russia is at war with Ukraine... So Trump will of course also use this to force most of the European Union to increase spending, thus reducing costs for the United States. So in this context, these statements are quite expected and are a continuation of the policy that Trump pursued during his first term, but did not have time to fully implement. Now he will continue to implement it," summarized Maksym Yali, analyst at the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security.
D. in Political Science, international expert Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, in a commentary for UNN , noted that Trump has focused almost his entire presidential campaign on the need to make budget management more effective.
We see that the new US president has issued a number of decrees that relate to various spheres of American public life and what is outside of it, i.e., in the international arena
According to him, Trump's sweeping decisions should have allowed him to accumulate more funds to finance certain programs and organizations, reduce costs, and optimize the work of the government apparatus.
According to the expert, this would allow the savings to be used to address pressing issues or allegedly improve the welfare of ordinary Americans.
Obviously, Trump's statements and decrees were made to meet the expectations of the voters who voted for him.
"Thus, Trump actually thanked the voters in a non-legal sense for being able to take the main seat in the White House again and lead the United States of America," the international expert said.
One of the most important executive orders signed was to begin the process of withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO). "This decision was one of many made by Trump as part of his executive actions. It is worth noting that this is the second time that Trump has initiated the US withdrawal from the WHO. The first attempt was during the coronavirus pandemic, when Trump criticized the organization for its response to the crisis. However, this decision was later reversed by President Joseph Biden. Now, the signing of the decree on the first day of Trump's new term increases the likelihood that the United States will officially leave the organization," Zhelikhovsky said.
According to Trump, the withdrawal from the WHO is due to the inadequate management of the pandemic that broke out in China and occurred during his first term, the expert says.
He remembers that time well. And, in fact, there was a lot of criticism of Trump at the time for not handling this situation. Well, maybe it could also shift the blame to this particular organization to show again that he was supposedly innocent, and all the other circumstances, all the other objects, subjects, and so on, were the reason why the pandemic broke out and why it hit the United States so painfully
He also recalled how Trump criticized the WHO for not being independent enough from the political influence of member states, and an additional argument was what he said was the unfairly high contribution that the United States pays to the WHO, which is part of the United Nations.
"That is, it is again about money - again to show his voters why we should pay such high dues, why we should be members of an organization that, not only drains our budget, but also has not coped, as he can say, with the challenges of the pandemic, which have painfully hit both the American and global economies and affected all the processes that have been taking place. And it's also worth remembering that during his first term in office, Trump accused the WHO of favoring China in its actions related to the pandemic," said the PhD in Political Science.
According to him, it is also worth considering the anti-Chinese direction of Trump's policy, who has never hidden his attitude to China and the fact that China seeks to occupy any niche in the global economy and has ambitions for world leadership.
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"And also, for example, with regard to Greenland and Panama, all this is also being discussed in the context of Trump's anti-Chinese views," the international expert said.
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky noted that in case of a change in policy aimed at engaging China in greater pragmatism and cooperation, in particular in the context of a peaceful settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war, neither the promised tariffs against China nor other measures against it may be introduced. However, situations like the one with the WHO can always be used by Trump to show his citizens that he continues to fight against China and its privileged position in international organizations, demonstrating to voters his opposition to China.
"For example, I (Trump - ed.) decided to create an organization where China allegedly has some kind of preferences. It's a very cunning game on Trump's part, because he is substituting concepts and has never actually wanted to admit his mistakes or that he cannot do something. We can observe a similar situation in the Middle East," the international expert noted.
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He added that Trump had failed to resolve the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war as he had promised before he came to the Cabinet. It's been 24 hours now, but he still hasn't resolved the situation. Instead, he managed to achieve some results in the Middle East. The US president emphasizes that he did his best, and thanks to his efforts, a settlement between Israel and Hamas has begun. "So he can use such things in his rhetoric. He will look for other options, because he realizes that not all Americans understand international politics. For example, if he says that he is opposing China in the healthcare organization and says that there is no need to cooperate with a country that has more influence in the WHO, it may look like an attempt to go his own way," said Stanislav Zhelikhovsky.
The international expert recalled that the same story happened with the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. According to him, this decision can also be presented from different angles. The PhD in Political Science believes that such processes will continue. But it should be remembered that Trump will be president for 4 years, and when the power in the country changes, especially if the new president is a representative of another party, a democratic one, these decisions can be revised.
"Then the United States can return to the Paris Climate Agreement, the World Health Organization, and other structures that Trump may withdraw from during his second term," Zelichowski said.
D. in Political Science Stanislav Zhelikhovsky in a commentary for UNN answered whether there are risks for NATO at the moment.
"At the end of December 2023, both houses of the US Congress passed a resolution prohibiting any president from announcing the US withdrawal from the North Atlantic Alliance at any time without the consent of Congress. Accordingly, preventive initiatives have been submitted, which is a safeguard, and it will be difficult for Trump to do so," the international expert said.
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky noted that although the Congress is currently controlled by the Republican Party, not all of its members support Trump's policies, especially on controversial and fundamental issues. He believes that it is unlikely that US lawmakers will be able to gather enough votes for such initiatives.
According to Zelichowski, both Democrats and some Republicans will oppose it, so Trump is unlikely to address the issue. The most he can do is to reduce the US role in the Alliance, for example, in certain programs, funding, or assistance to Ukraine.
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky noted that such an option is possible, although it depends on how other countries make decisions. He believes that even if not all states reach the five percent defense spending target, increasing the current level, for example, to 3% or at least ensuring a minimum level of 2%, could reduce Trump's irritation. According to the PhD, this applies not only to US membership in NATO, but also to US participation in various operations, initiatives, or programs.
Zelichowski also suggested that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who has maintained good ties with Donald Trump since his first term, could use this relationship to maintain or even strengthen ties between the United States and European allies. In his opinion, Rutte could unite European partners and convince them to increase funding for defense, security, and assistance to Ukraine, especially if the hot phase of the war continues. This could also contribute to a peaceful settlement. However, Zelichowski noted that it is important to avoid drastic steps that could provoke a negative reaction from Trump.
"Trump is a rather irritable personality who reacts sharply to things he doesn't like. Because of his personality, you need to pursue a balanced policy and try to act in a way that is consistent with his views. States that increase defense spending may cause him to react differently, but this may help ensure that he does not interfere in the affairs of the Alliance," the international expert said.
Trump renames the Gulf of Mexico and more
The new US president has already made a number of statements that have caused different reactions in society. For example, immediately after his inauguration, Trump issued new executive orders to enshrine his promise to rename the Gulf of Mexico into the "American Gulf".
"I see it through the prism of populism. It has no serious impact... But whether he will be able to change the name of the Gulf in all possible documents and sources is a question. Moreover, nothing will prevent the new US government from returning the current name if it deems it necessary," Zhelikhovsky said.
According to the PhD, this can be viewed through the prism of populism and a signal, in particular to his citizens, that Trump will fight illegal migration from Mexico. This is also a signal to those Mexicans who are in the United States illegally that, relatively speaking, they should get ready.
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"This is a signal to Mexico itself and its citizens not to try to send new illegal immigrants to the United States or create opportunities for them to move. First of all, this is a signal to official Mexico City. Of course, we are talking about Mexicans here, because it is not only they who cross the border, but Mexico provides such opportunities. There is a certain subtext in this context," Zhelikhovsky said.
The PhD in Political Science noted that everyone perceives Trump's actions in their own way, but they manifest his main motto, Make America Great Again. According to him, Trump is trying to show that he is returning greatness to the United States. Even in issues such as place names or regions, he seeks to emphasize his position. For example, his desire to rename Mount McKinley is a gesture that will not, however, affect the well-being of ordinary Americans. Other measures are needed to improve their lives, as renaming is not essential.
He drew a parallel with Ukraine, which is fighting against aggression and has a historical mountain of challenges - Russia, which for centuries has influenced Ukrainian lands through various empires, both Russian and Soviet. Some Ukrainian territories are still occupied by the Russian Federation. Ukrainian legislation is aimed at decommunization and de-Russification, which should demonstrate the country's unwillingness to be part of this empire. In his opinion, this is fair, as Ukraine seeks to eradicate the vestiges of imperial influence that have remained on its soil for centuries.
When asked about Greenland, he noted that if Greenland gets rid of the conditional "yoke" of Danish imperialism, it could open up new opportunities for foreign capital, although it is already present in the region, including Chinese capital. It is also an attempt to limit the influence of Chinese capital and interests in Greenland. In addition, it creates the prospect of deploying military bases. One base already existed there, but Trump may want to restore its full functioning.
He suggested that there could be a struggle for the Arctic in the future. If the United States does not ensure a full-fledged presence in the region, Russia and China may increase their influence and try to push the United States out. According to Zelichowski, in order to contain Russia, Trump may seek to strengthen American capabilities in the Arctic and counteract the expansion of Russia, China and other countries in the Polar region.
The Impact of Trump's Policy on Ukraine
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky noted that the situation with the provision of aid is currently difficult, as Trump has imposed a moratorium on issues related to foreign aid. He suggested that it is not yet known to what extent this decision will affect the articles related to Ukraine and whether it will affect the decisions made by the US Congress. However, he believes that assistance to Ukraine may even increase, but only if the Russian Federation does not want to negotiate. In his opinion, if Putin rejects Trump's initiatives, it will be a blow to the latter, because he promised a lot and assured that he could achieve results quickly.
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Zelichowski also noted that if Putin agrees to negotiate, but the process does not move forward, this could make Trump very angry. In this case, he is likely to resort to imposing sanctions on Russia, hitting its energy market and increasing support for Ukraine. This, according to Zelichowski, could include providing means to either deter Russia or allow Ukraine to conduct counteroffensive operations both on its territory and on Russian territory.
He added that the development of events will depend on the Kremlin's position. At the moment, he said, assistance to Ukraine is coming, although perhaps not in the amount or in the timeframe that one would like. In any case, Zelichowski summarized that we should take into account the circumstances and the situation that will develop in the coming weeks and months.
Recall
The President of the United States of America Donald Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine and prevent World War III.