U.S. officials warn of rising oil and gasoline prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz

One day after U.S. President Donald Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz was "open," officials in his administration are raising their forecasts for oil and gasoline prices, as "restrictions" block the flow of energy through this critically important waterway, UNN reports, citing CNN.

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The Energy Department’s forecasting arm, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), now expects energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz to remain restricted until August.

On Tuesday, the EIA raised its 2026 forecast for Brent, the global oil benchmark, to an average price of $87 per barrel. That is higher than the $82 forecast for Brent a month ago and close to the current level.

Officials now expect retail gasoline prices to average $3.78 per gallon this year, up from the previous forecast of $3.64 per gallon. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), gasoline prices nationwide were just $2.98 per gallon before the war began.

Forecasters also raised their estimates for oil and gasoline prices in 2027.

The EIA attributed this to "restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz," adding that the forecast "assumes that these restrictions will continue through August."

The pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that typically handles one-fifth of the world’s oil volume, also prompted the EIA to increase its forecast for how much oil production in the Middle East will be shut down in the coming months.

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The forecast sharply contrasts with Trump’s own comments.

On Monday, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the strait was "currently open" and that only the U.S. Navy controls the waterway.

According to maritime intelligence company Kpler, only eight vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared with a prewar average of 120.