"There will be problems, but unfortunately, we shouldn't expect the collapse of the Russian front": expert explained what Starlink's disconnection means for the enemy army
Kyiv • UNN
Andriy Kramarov, a reserve officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a military expert, explained in a comment for UNN how serious a problem for the Russian army are the disruptions in Starlink's operation, which elements of combat control were tied to it, and why one should not expect an immediate collapse of the Russian front.
Russian Z-publics report mass disconnections of Starlink terminals at the front, which, according to them, allegedly affect both sides of the conflict. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that Starlink terminals included in the "white list" are working, and Russian terminals have been blocked. This led to problems in the enemy's troop control and the cessation of assault operations.
Andriy Kramarov, a reserve officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and military expert, explained in a comment for UNN how serious a problem Starlink system disruptions are for the Russian army, which elements of combat control were tied to it, and why an immediate collapse of the Russian front should not be expected.
According to him, the very concept of "criticality" in a military context is often misinterpreted in the public space.
"Critical" does not mean an instant collapse of control
The expert noted that Starlink disruptions do not mean a complete paralysis of Russian troop control.
"Here it is necessary to understand that we somewhat misunderstand what criticality is. For many, it looks like everything will simply collapse for the Russians tomorrow and any operational-tactical control will become impossible. This is not the case," he noted.
According to Kramarov, problems do arise, but they are not of a total collapse nature.
"Yes, there are problems, and big problems. But to say that the Russian army will completely lose control is an incorrect assessment," Kramarov said.
When Russia began to massively use Starlink
The military expert noted that the active use of Starlink by the Russian army began relatively recently.
"The Russian army received key terminals and actively implemented them. This concerned command at the operational-tactical level - command posts of brigades and battalions. From late 2024 - early 2025, we began to record that the Russians actively began to use Starlink."
Before that, according to Kramarov, the Russians used other, much less effective systems.
"They had a different system of organizing control, observation and management on the line of combat contact - using their own terminal technologies," he said.
Alternatives exist, but they are much weaker
The expert emphasized that even without Starlink, the Russian army did not remain without communication.
"Of course, it was slow and not as effective as with Starlink. But they had a separate military satellite communication system even at the beginning of 2022."
That is why, according to him, the disconnection of Starlink does not mean a complete cessation of control.
What problems Russians are facing now
At the same time, Kramarov noted that the simultaneous disconnection of a large number of terminals creates difficulties for the Russian Federation.
"When a large number of terminals are disconnected simultaneously, they face a whole range of problems. First of all, this concerns the operation of drones. They may have questions about maintaining real-time video from various types of UAVs that control the combat contact zone," says Kramarov.
The expert also noted that communication and the delivery of operational information, which was previously almost impossible to intercept, also suffered.
Does this directly affect the situation at the front?
The expert specifically emphasized that the effect on the front line itself is not catastrophic.
"As for the direct line of combat orders - no, it cannot be said that everything will stop there."
According to him, certain difficulties are possible, but they are limited in time.
"There will be problems with some offensive assault actions, but here there are also weather conditions, and issues of rotations and regroupings. The Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk directions have already reached certain maximums, and they now need to reorganize," Kramarov said.
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Russia will have to "roll back"
Kramarov noted that in the event of Starlink disruptions, the Russian command will be forced to return to older control models.
"They will have to roll back to the system of troop control and information exchange that they had before the implementation of Starlink," he noted.
What exactly did the Russians most tie Starlink to?
According to the expert, the key areas of system use were reconnaissance and drones.
"First of all, it's drones, reconnaissance, and the presence of an encrypted communication system that is difficult to intercept in real time. It's not so much logistics as real-time control and reconnaissance," he noted.
The biggest threat is Starlink in long-range UAVs
Kramarov emphasized that the most dangerous thing for Ukraine was the use of Starlink in drones that flew deep into the rear.
"The use of Starlink on the front line was not as critical as its use in reconnaissance and strike UAVs that flew deep into the territory of Ukraine. This is exactly what the whole story with the so-called 'white Starlinks' was for - to prevent such incursions," he emphasized.
Why Starlink is so effective
The expert specifically focused on the technical advantages of the system.
"Starlink is a very high-speed channel. It's speed plus stability of operation. This is what gave the Russians additional capabilities," the military noted.
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What is the situation with Starlink in the Ukrainian army?
Commenting on the statements of Russian z-channels about alleged problems on both sides, Kramarov noted that the situation is controlled for Ukraine.
"We have isolated cases, but they are not critical. Systems that were officially transferred and were on the balance sheet of units had serial numbers and were correctly registered. Problems arose with individual systems, but they were promptly resolved," the military explained.
Why comparing Starlink with Russian systems is incorrect
In conclusion, the expert emphasized that the technological difference between Starlink and Russian satellite systems is fundamental.
"It is absolutely incorrect to compare. Russian systems are slow data transmission, the level of a satellite phone. There is no talk of real-time control. Starlink is speed and stability, which Russian systems simply do not have," he said.
Summing up, Andriy Kramarov emphasized that disruptions in Starlink's operation create tangible difficulties for the Russian army, primarily in the areas of reconnaissance, drone control, and real-time data transmission. At the same time, according to him, there is no critical collapse of the troop control system.
The expert noted that Russia will be forced to return to less effective, slower, and technologically outdated methods of communication and information exchange. This will complicate coordination of actions, reduce the speed of decision-making, and limit the capabilities of UAVs, especially deep within Ukraine.
At the same time, Kramarov emphasized that despite the absence of an "instant collapse" of the front, the situation objectively plays into Ukraine's favor. The loss of access to a high-speed and stable data transmission channel reduces the enemy's technological advantages and lowers the level of threats associated with the reconnaissance and strike capabilities of Russian forces.
Recall
Elon Musk emphasized the importance of registering Starlink terminals in Ukraine. This is due to the verification of terminals for defense purposes and countering their use by Russians.