Russians are trying to encircle Kupyansk: ISW told about the risks and threats to the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Kyiv • UNN
Russian troops are expanding their positions north of Kupyansk to force the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the eastern bank of the Oskol. The occupiers are planning a 6-9 month operation to surround the city and cross the river.
The Russian occupiers are preparing to surround Kupyansk and cross the Oskil River, and continue their "creeping advance" to please Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is not going to end the war. This is stated in an analytical report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports.
Details
It is noted that Russian troops are expanding their positions north of Kupyansk as part of a long-term operational effort to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the eastern (left) bank of the Oskil River.
The occupiers have recently intensified their offensive operations north of Kupiansk, in particular near Dvorichna, as part of a broader intensification on the Kupiansk, Borysivka and Lyman directions
The Institute for the Study of War reports that geolocation data released on January 30 and 31 indicate that Russian forces have recently made minor advances north of Dvorichna (north of Kupyansk and on the west bank of the Oskil River), to the southern outskirts of Zakhidne (southwest of Dvorichna), and north along the west bank of the Oskil River northwest of Novomlynsk (north-east of Dvorichna).
Russian forces also use mechanized attacks to expand their advance north of Kupyansk
According to ISW , units of the 6th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation (Leningrad Military District) play a leading role in Russian efforts to expand their positions north of Kupyansk.
The pace of Russian offensive operations on this section of the frontline was generally much slower than elsewhere in eastern Ukraine for most of 2024, and Russian units in the area were likely well rested and prepared for the start of the months-long campaign to surround Kupyansk
The Institute for the Study of War noted that the Russian military does not appear to have significant unused reserves that could be used for this effort, but the Russian military command may be ready to redeploy advanced units from other parts of the front to take advantage of any significant tactical advantages in the Dvorichna-Kupyansk area.
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Units of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (Moscow Military District) are also involved in the encirclement of Kupyansk and are attempting to advance east of Kupyansk and expand the Russian advance south of Kupyansk in the Kruglyakivka area, likely to prepare for an offensive south of Kupyansk, crossing the Oskil River and putting pressure on Borova.
The Russian military command has demonstrated that it is prepared to engage in operations that could last six to nine months. It is likely acting on the assumption or knowledge that Putin has no intention of ending the war in Ukraine in the near future
Russian troops are gradually working to push Ukrainian forces out of the eastern bank of the Oskil River from winter 2023-2024, and the Russian military command has previously deprioritized the Kupyansk-Borova Lyman line in favor of other operational efforts in Ukraine.
The encirclement of Kupyansk will almost certainly be a multi-month effort that will require Russian troops to close a 25-30 kilometer wide gap, as well as to cross the Oskil River, capture small settlements that come their way, and repel Ukrainian counterattacks. the Russian command does not appear to be concerned with the speed or sequence of its advance in Ukraine, probably because it believes that the war will continue until Russia inflicts a military defeat on Ukraine
ISW analysts recall that Putin has previously formulated a theory of "victory" that assumes that the Russian military will be able to continue its gradual, creeping advance in Ukraine indefinitely, and has repeatedly indicated that he is not interested in resolving the war on any terms other than those he dictates.
Putin's command assimilates these statements and probably comes to the logical conclusion that Putin is not interested in ending the war and intends to continue fighting until he achieves his goals in Ukraine, which are to overthrow the current Ukrainian government and categorically destroy the Ukrainian army
According to the Institute's analysts, Russia's ability to continue the slow encirclement of settlements instead of trying to conduct a rapid mechanized maneuver that breaks through the Ukrainian defense line and quickly achieves operationally significant successes in the medium and long term depends on the ability of Russia to supply large numbers of personnel and material resources necessary to support these operations.
In addition, Russian troops are also stepping up their efforts to close the remaining Ukrainian "pocket" west of Kurakhove.
Russian forces likely aim to close or destroy the Ukrainian "pocket" west of Kurakhove to free up Russian forces operating in the area for offensive operations elsewhere, such as advancing to the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovs'k regions from Pokrovsk or Velyka Novosilka, as ISW has previously assessed
ISW's key findings for January 31:
- On January 31, the United Kingdom, Finland, and the Czech Republic announced several packages of immediate and long-term military assistance to Ukraine.
- Russian troops are expanding their forces north of Kupyansk as part of a long-term operational effort to push Ukrainian forces from the eastern (left) bank of the Oskil River.
- Units of the 6th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation (Leningrad Military District) are reportedly leading Russian efforts to expand their positions north of Kupyansk.
- Units of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (Moscow Military District) are also involved in the encirclement of Kupyansk and are attempting to advance east of it and expand the Russian advance south of Kupyansk in the area of Kruglyakivka, likely in preparation for an offensive south of Kupyansk, crossing the Oskil River and putting pressure on Borova.
- Russian troops appear to be developing and disseminating a theater-wide offensive method that consists of slowly covering frontline cities and towns on a scale sufficient to allow Russian forces to complete the operation before its culmination.
- The Russian military command has demonstrated that it is prepared to engage in operations that could last six to nine months. the Russian command is likely acting on the assumption or direct knowledge that Putin has no intention of ending the war in Ukraine in the near future.
- This Russian method of offensive leads to slow operational maneuver on the battlefield, but such an environment requires considerable planning, forecasts, manpower and equipment and does not restore rapid mechanized maneuver on the battlefield.
- Russian troops are also stepping up their efforts to close the remaining Ukrainian “pocket” west of Kurakhove.
- Moldovan and Transnistrian authorities agreed to accept a European Union package that includes funding for gas purchases for Transnistria, further limiting Russia's economic influence on the pro-Russian breakaway republic.
- Ukrainian troops strike a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd region amid ongoing attacks on Russian energy and defense industrial infrastructure.
- Russian troops advanced near Kupyansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
- Western and Ukrainian officials continue to report that North Korean troops have withdrawn from their advanced positions in the Kursk region.
Recall
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