Putin will be ready for a "creeping" advance in Ukraine until the human resource runs out - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
Putin will be ready for a gradual advance in Ukraine, believing that Russia can fight for years. He is replenishing losses at the front, but Western aid to Ukraine can change this.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate his willingness to achieve his military goals through gradual, creeping advances on the battlefield. This is stated in the material of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.
Details
Analysts suggest that Putin will take advantage of any tactical opportunities on the front to advance deeper into Ukraine, as he believes that Russia can "fight for years, despite any sanctions or other economic measures that the West may apply" in the future.
Putin adheres to a theory of victory, which assumes that Russian troops will be able to continue gradual, creeping advances indefinitely and survive and overcome Western military assistance to Ukraine and the capabilities of Ukraine itself
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They do not rule out that Russia will probably be able to continue its current tactics, but only as long as it is able to replenish its losses on the front line. And they recall the recent statement of the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, according to whom, since the beginning of 2025, almost 175 thousand people have arrived in military units and more than 14 thousand people have joined volunteer units - that is, approximately 1285 people per day.
Reports from the Ukrainian General Staff on Russia's daily losses indicate that in January 2025, the Russians lost an average of 1,550 soldiers per day; 1,261 in February 2025; 1,312 in March 2025; 1,219 in April 2025; and 1,140 from May 1 to 28. Medvedev's statement ... suggests that Russia is replenishing its units in approximately a one-to-one ratio to its losses
They conclude that Ukrainian forces, supported by Western aid, can inflict greater personnel losses on the battlefield, which may push Putin to make difficult decisions and force him to "engage in good faith negotiations to end the war."
Recall
According to ISW analysts, the demands of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine indicate the Kremlin's desire to force the West to "surrender" Ukraine and break up NATO.
On the eve of Reuters, citing its own sources, reported that Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine if Western leaders pledge in writing to stop NATO expansion to the east and lift some of the sanctions against Russia.