Putin demands that Ukraine effectively surrender before any ceasefire - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
Putin demanded the "irreversible" "demilitarization" of Ukraine as a precondition for any ceasefire agreement.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has unequivocally rejected Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement, instead demanding the "irreversible" "demilitarization" of Ukraine as a precondition for any deal. Putin is thus demanding that Ukraine effectively surrender before any ceasefire. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.
Details
Analysts write that Putin commented on the prospects for a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 4, but instead of showing "his typical feigned interest" in such talks, he explicitly rejected any ceasefire negotiation process.
ISW notes that Putin has repeatedly presented the West as his supposed partner in ceasefire negotiations to force the West to make concessions on Ukraine's sovereignty, but Putin has rejected all mediating parties in particular.
The dictator also rejected the Verkhovna Rada as a possible point of contact for negotiations, although he had previously stated that this entity was the only legitimate Ukrainian structure with which Russia could negotiate.
Putin has now labeled all of Ukraine's governing institutions as illegitimate or unfit for negotiation and rejected the idea of third parties participating in the talks, effectively rejecting any realistic process for meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement.
"Instead, Putin emphasized his demand for the 'demilitarization' of Ukraine as a basic condition for any ceasefire agreement, demanding that Ukraine agree to irreversible 'demilitarization' measures. Putin argued that Russia could not allow the Ukrainian military to take advantage of the ceasefire to rebuild its forces," the ISW report says.
According to the analysts, Putin, of course, did not address the fact that Russian forces will almost certainly take advantage of a potential ceasefire in this way, and ISW continues to believe that Russia will use the post-ceasefire respite to rebuild and expand its forces and further mobilize its military-industrial base (MIC) for future aggression.
"Putin's rejection of any ceasefire agreement that does not include Ukraine's surrender also indicates that he is confident in his assessment that Russia can win by continuing its creeping advance in Ukraine, unable to withstand Western support for Ukraine, and winning a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces," the ISW said.