Oil exports from Russia fell by 11%: what is happening to the “shadow fleet”?
Kyiv • UNN
Russia's maritime oil exports fell to 3.06 million barrels per day due to terminal repairs and sanctions pressure. Two-thirds of Russia's “shadow fleet” tankers are idle at ports due to tighter Western sanctions.
Due to maintenance at one of Russia's main export terminals, Russian oil shipments by sea have fallen by about 11% since October 2024. But there are other factors behind the drop as well.
Transmitted by UNN with reference to Bloomberg.
Russia's maritime crude oil exports have fallen by about 11% since October 2024. The average volume over the past four weeks has been 3.06 million barrels per day, down from a recent peak of 3.46 million barrels per day two months ago. The reason for this decline, which Bloomberg points out in the first place, is maintenance work at one of Russia's main export terminals.
But it is also important to note another thing:
The decline comes as Western powers increase pressure on the shadowy tanker fleet created by Russia to keep oil flowing;
In addition, refining volumes at refineries reached their highest weekly level since mid-August. This could potentially reduce the amount of oil available for export.
Russia is also under increasing pressure to meet the OPEC+ production target, which was extended until the end of March. Earlier , OPEC+ postponed plans to increase production.
European countries have tightened sanctions against ships carrying Moscow oil, and the United States is weighing new, tougher measures a few weeks before Donald Trump returns to the White House.
Important revelation
Ukraine has identified 238 tankers that it believes are part of the shadow fleet. Further sanctions are currently being planned against the relevant carriers.
Almost two-thirds of tankers sanctioned by Western countries for participating in the Russian oil trade are idle, many of them gathering near Russian ports.
Some data on oil in Russia
At the end of May, Russia canceled its export targets, deciding to limit production, as did its partners in the OPEC+ group of oil producers. The country's production target was set at 8.978 million barrels per day by the end of March.
Moscow has also promised to further reduce production in October and November 2024, and then again between March and September 2025
Russia's oil revenues declined; average weekly prices for major Russian oil flows moved in different directions. In the week to December 15, the gross value of Russian supplies fell by about $70 million to $1.36 billion.
Flows by direction
Asia
Observed deliveries to consumers in Asia, including those without a final destination, rose to 2.77 million bpd in the four weeks to December 15.
About 1.35 million barrels of crude oil per day were loaded onto tankers bound for China.
Indian figures are likely to increase as discharge ports become clearer for vessels that currently do not specify final destinations. Most vessels sailing from western Russian ports through the Suez Canal end up in this South Asian country.
Ships signaling Port Said or Suez in Egypt carry the equivalent of about 200,000 barrels per day.
The" other unknown " volumes, which were about 30,000 barrels per day for the four weeks to December 15, are tankers that do not have a clear destination.
Europe and Turkey
Russian offshore crude oil exports to European countries have stopped, while supplies to Bulgaria have stopped at the end of last year. Russia also lost about 500,000 barrels per day of pipeline exports to Poland and Germany in early 2023.
Turkey is now the only short-haul market for shipments from Russia's western ports, but flows here fell to about 300,000 bpd in the 28 days to December 15, the lowest in seven weeks.
