It would take Russia 91 years to capture Medvedev's "buffer zone" - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
ISW analysts calculated that it would take Russia 91 years and 50 million casualties to capture Medvedev's proposed "buffer zone" in Ukraine, given the current rate of advance.
It will take Russian troops about a century to capture the "buffer zone" proposed by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, while the aggressor country's losses will amount to 50 million in manpower. Such estimates are published by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.
Details
They point out that from January 1, 2025 to May 24, 2025, Russian forces advanced an average of approximately 14.3 square kilometers per day in Ukraine and Russia.
At this rate of advance, it would take Russian forces approximately 3.9 years to capture the remainder of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, and approximately 91 years to capture Medvedev's proposed "buffer zone," which includes 587,459 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory
In February, ISW analysts estimated that it would take Russia 83 years to capture the remaining 80 percent of Ukraine at its rate of advance at the time, indicating that Russia's rate of advance slowed between February and May 2025.
"Russian forces have suffered an average of 1,500 casualties per day over the past year (since mid-2024), suggesting that Russian forces could suffer nearly 50 million casualties (approximately one-third of Russia's current population) if Russian forces maintain the current level of casualties for the 91 years it would take to create Medvedev's 'buffer zone,'" the experts summarize.
Recall
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev threatened that almost the entire territory of Ukraine could become a "buffer zone." On his page on the social network X, Medvedev published an infographic, according to which, if "military assistance to the Bandera regime continues, the buffer zone will look like this", and attached a map of Ukraine, where the Ukrainian territory is marked as "buffer zone", and "Ukraine" is called a narrow strip along the border with Poland.
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