ISW: The seizure of Velyka Novosilka may indicate future plans of the Russian Federation

The capture of Velyka Novosilka is likely to provide an opportunity for the Russian command to decide whether to redeploy the military units to other operational areas. In turn, any redeployment in the coming weeks will indicate where the enemy will attack in the spring and summer. This is stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports.

Details

ISW analysts noted that Russian troops made further advances within Velyka Novosilka amid official Russian statements that on January 26, the occupiers captured the entire settlement.

Geolocation footage released on January 26 shows Russian troops moving north along Tsentralna Street in northern Velyka Novosilka

It is noted that some Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense, claimed on January 26 that Russian troops had completely captured Velyka Novosilka, while other Russian sources claimed that Russian troops had captured most of the settlement.

Some Russian bloggers claimed that Russian troops were still clearing the village of Ukrainian forces, including the northern part, and that Ukrainian forces were still counterattacking in the area.

However, according to geolocation data, ISW believes that Russian troops occupy 89 percent of the village

According to analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War, the Russian Ministry of Defense is paying abnormally much attention to the capture of Velyka Novosilka by Russian troops, which is likely part of an information effort to shape the West's perception of the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine and weaken international support for Ukraine.

Khortytsia OSGT commented on the situation near Velyka Novosilka23.01.25, 13:59 • 20946 views

Experts note that Russian successes in the western part of Donetsk region continue to be gradual and far below the pace that is normal for modern mechanized warfare.

In addition, the report says, it remains unclear whether Russian troops will be able to quickly advance beyond Velyka Novosilka, as it is unclear how much combat power elements of the Russian army's eastern military district still retain after several months of continuous offensive operations.

Velyka Novosilka is located next to several rivers, which is likely to complicate and impede further tactical advance of Russian troops in the area. Russian troops have had problems crossing rivers... which is likely to complicate the ability of Russian troops to use the capture of Velyka Novosilka for operationally significant advance in the western part of Donetsk region

Experts suggest that the capture and cleansing of Velyka Novosilka is likely to provide the Russian military command with opportunities and become a starting point for deciding to redeploy units of the Russian Eastern Military District (MD) from the Velyka Novosilka area to other priority operational areas.

The Russian military command may decide to leave the AFU units in the western part of Donetsk region and continue to advance to the administrative border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovs'k regions, which runs north and west of Velyka Novosilka.

Situation in Velyka Novosilka escalates: Russians try to surround the settlement24.01.25, 11:11 • 35402 views

According to analysts, this decision may indicate that the Russian military prefers to advance as quickly as possible to the administrative border rather than in other areas in Donetsk region or other frontline areas.

The report adds that it remains unclear how combat-ready the units remain after more than six months of participation in intensive operations.

Russian troops are currently intensifying offensive operations on the Kupyansk, Borivske, Chasiv-Yarske, Toretske and Pokrovske directions, and continue to work on eliminating the remaining Ukrainian fortifications on the Kurakhivske direction and in the Kursk region

The Russian military command may also leave some units of the SVO in the area of Velyka Novosilka to continue limited attacks and pinch Ukrainian forces in the area, but redeploy the bulk of the military district to another part of the front.

ISW's key findings for January 26:

• Russian troops made further advances within Velyka Novosilka amid official Russian statements that on January 26, the occupiers captured the entire settlement.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense is paying abnormally much attention to the claims of the capture of Velyka Novosilka, which is most likely part of an information effort to shape the West's perception of the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine and weaken international support for Ukraine.
• The capture and cleansing of Velyka Novosilka is likely to provide an opportunity for the Russian military command to decide on the redeployment of units of Russia's Eastern Military District (MD) from the Velyka Novosilka area to other priority operational areas. Any redeployment of the Eastern Military District units from the Velyka Novosilka area in the coming weeks will indicate the priority operational areas for Russia's offensive operations in the spring and summer of 2025.
• Russian troops are ready to capture Toretsk in the coming days, and the redeployment of the AFU elements to strengthen the Russian grouping in the Toretsk sector will indicate new priority efforts by Russia to resume attacks in the direction of Kostyantynivka.
• On the night of January 25-26, Ukrainian troops struck again at the Ryazan oil refinery.
• Ukrainian troops advanced in Kursk region and regained positions in Toretsk.
• Russian troops advanced near Borova, Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
• On January 25, Russian bloggers criticized the Russian government for not prioritizing the recruitment and training of the next generation of Russian officers.

Recall

Russian troops were also spottedin Velyka Novosilka, where they planted a flag on the boiler house behind the Kolos stadium. The enemy has succeeded in the eastern outskirts and part of the central streets of the settlement.

An oil refinery in the russian city of ryazan is damaged26.01.25, 00:55 • 85415 views