ISW: Economic pressure on Russia is insufficient without military aid to Ukraine
Kyiv • UNN
ISW experts believe that in order to change Putin's position, it is necessary to continue military assistance to Ukraine from the West. Only significant losses of the Russian Federation on the battlefield will force the Russian dictator to reconsider his strategy.
Any increase in economic pressure on Russia - despite its positive effect - is not enough in itself to force Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to sit down at the negotiating table or change his own vision of victory. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.
Details
Analysts believe that the key to conducting a campaign of pressure on Russia that could force Putin to reconsider his "theory of victory" remains the continuation of Western military assistance to Ukraine.
Putin's theory of victory is based on the assumption that the Russian army can withstand gradual advances on the battlefield longer than Ukrainian forces can defend themselves, and longer than the West is willing to support Ukraine. Most likely, Putin's strategy will continue to guide his decision to refuse meaningful engagement with the United States and Ukraine in peace negotiations.
They point out that achieving peace in Ukraine, acceptable to the United States, requires constant losses or a significant failure of Russia on the battlefield.
The United States must continue to arm Ukrainian soldiers, as Russian losses on the battlefield remain a key factor in Russia's current material, human and economic problems. Western assistance, including weapons systems that only the United States can provide on a large scale and quickly, would allow Ukrainian forces to better defend their positions, slow Russia's advance, and inflict even more serious losses on the Russian military.
In their opinion, higher and even more unacceptable rates of Russian losses on the battlefield, especially when they are disproportionate to the territorial gains of the occupiers, would jeopardize Putin's efforts to maintain a balance between "butter and weapons" (peaceful and military production - ed.) and maintain domestic support.
Let us remind you
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is not sure that negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation will bring peace closer, but he is convinced that Putin needs to be tested with their help.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists on continuing Ukrainian-Russian "peace" negotiations. He stressed the importance of continuing direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to achieve a lasting peace.