ISW analyzed whether the activation of the Russian Federation in Kursk is related to the suspension of intelligence data from the USA
Kyiv • UNN
Russian troops intensified their offensive in the Kursk region after the suspension of intelligence data exchange between the USA and Ukraine on March 5. The Kremlin stated its intention to use the pause in assistance to inflict maximum damage.
The direct link between the suspension of U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the beginning of the collapse of the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region is not obvious, although officials in the Kremlin have stated their intention to use the suspension of American aid to inflict maximum damage.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.
Since the invasion began in August 2024, Russia has been trying to push Ukrainian forces away from the advance in the Kursk region through slow, exhausting progress. Later, in October 2024, Russia deployed about 12,000 North Korean troops to assist in repelling the invasion, but Russian forces continued to achieve only gradual successes
It is noted that the Trump administration suspended U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine on March 5, although conflicting reports about the details of the U.S. suspension continue to emerge. Russian forces intensified offensive operations on March 6 and 7 to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region.
A source linked to Ukrainian military intelligence began reporting faster Russian advances in the Kursk region on March 5.
A source in the Ukrainian government stated in a Time article on March 8 that the U.S. suspension of intelligence sharing had the greatest impact on Ukraine's operations in the Kursk region.
Analysts report that Russian military forces had previously not prioritized efforts to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region over further advances in eastern Ukraine, despite the fact that a sufficient grouping of forces had been concentrated for this by the end of 2024.
The direct link between the suspension of U.S. intelligence sharing and the beginning of the collapse of the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region is not obvious, although Kremlin officials recently announced their intention to use the suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing to "inflict maximum damage" on Ukrainian forces "on the ground" for a limited period of time before a possible future resumption of U.S. intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine
Context
On March 9, Sergeant Major of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" Oleg Chaus reported that Ukrainian military forces are fighting against assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces - the enemy is trying to encircle the Ukrainian Armed Forces units. Overall, the enemy outnumbers Ukrainian forces, and additionally, Russia is trying to control the route to the Sudzhansk territory with FPV drones.
The U.S. went for a freeze in providing intelligence data to Ukraine after the Trump administration's decision to suspend military aid. Three officials confirmed the freezing of intelligence channels between Washington and Kyiv.
Washington has prohibited the United Kingdom from sharing U.S. military intelligence data with Ukraine.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed the pause in supplying weapons and intelligence to Ukraine.