ISW analysts suggested how Russian troops could use the advance in Toretsk

Russian troops are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Kostyantynivka in Donetsk region. The threat will not arise if the Russian military command does not reinforce the existing grouping of forces in the area with troops from other frontline areas. This is reported by UNN with reference to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Details

The report notes that according to geolocation images released on January 6, Russian troops advanced along Kvitkova Street and reached the northwestern administrative border of Toretsk.

A Russian blogger claims that Russian troops occupy about 90% of the city's territory

However, according to the geolocation maps studied by ISW analysts, as of January 7, Russian troops occupied approximately 71% of the settlement's territory.

The ISW suggests that Russian forces are likely to use their successes in northwestern Toretsk to advance west of Toretsk and Shcherbynivka and along the T-05-16 Toretsk-Kostiantynivka highway toward the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt in Kostiantynivka.

According to analysts, the invaders may intend to gain a foothold in the northwest of Toretsk and in the center of Shcherbynivka (west of Toretsk) to advance along the T-05-16 highway toward Kostyantynivka through Nelipivka, Pleshchiyivka, Ivanopillia and the fields around these settlements, trying to threaten the southern edge of the Ukrainian fortification belt of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk, which is the basis of the defense of Donetsk region.

Russian troops may also try to use their further advance northwest of Toretsk and south of Chasovyi Yar toward Bila Hora and Oleksandro-Shultyno to destroy the Ukrainian "pocket" in the area and align the front line west and southwest of Kostyantynivka.

This advance would complicate Ukraine's ability to counterattack in Russia's near rear southeast of Chasovyi Yar, including towards Klishchiyivka, and would allow Russian forces to deploy additional artillery systems within range of Kostiantynivka and use FPV drones within the city's reach

Russian forces may also try to move west and northwest of New York and Leonidivka towards the H-20 Donetsk-Konstantinovka and H-32 Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka roads to push Konstantinovka from the south and create a more stable southern flank for an offensive on Konstantinovka.

Experts note that Russian troops are likely to be able to make faster advances in the fields and small settlements north and west of Toretsk than they were able to achieve in their slow advance toward the city of Toretsk.

Russian army units in the area may try to repeat the short, tactically important mechanized attacks that they conducted on the Kurakhove and Vuhledar directions in the fall of 2024 if they have a sufficient reserve of armored vehicles for this sector.

Russian forces may try to use tactical gains in and around Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to eliminate the Ukrainian fortification southwest of Toretsk. They may try to use the gains within Toretsk and the Toretsk-Shcherbynivka-New York section, as well as recent Russian gains east of Pokrovsk, to eliminate the Ukrainian pocket between Vozdvyzhenka (east of Pokrovsk) and Toretsk.

According to ISW , the Russian advance east of Pokrovsk and west of Toretsk may be part of an ongoing effort to gain advantages that allow it to seize any territory, despite its relative insignificance.

At the same time, experts believe that Russian troops are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Kostyantynivka unless the Russian military command reinforces the existing grouping of troops in the area with troops from other frontline areas.

the Russian military command may continue to prioritize the Pokrovske and Kurakhove directions, but reduce the priority of offensive operations in other areas of the front, such as the Kupyanske or Borivske directions, in order to redeploy forces to the Toretsk direction

"ISW is not ready to make a prediction on how the Russians will distribute their efforts near Toretsk at this time.

ISW's key findings for January 7:

Russian troops advanced into Toretsk after several weeks of faster offensive operations and gaining new positions in the area.

The occupiers are likely to use their successes in Toretsk to advance west of Toretsk and Shcherbynivka and along the T-05-16 Toretsk-Kostiantynivka road towards the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt in Kostiantynivka.

Russian troops may try to use tactical advantages in and around Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to eliminate Ukrainian fortifications southwest of Toretsk.

They are likely to try to break out of the urban encirclement of Toretsk and push into more open rural areas, similar to where Russian forces have made significant gains in other parts of the front in recent months.

Russian troops are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Kostyantynivka unless the Russian military command reinforces the existing grouping of troops in the area with troops from other parts of the front.

The Ukrainian General Staff said that on January 7, Ukrainian troops struck the command post of the Russian 810th Marine Brigade in Belaya, Kursk region.

Ukrainian troops have recently advanced in the Kursk region, while Russian troops have advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and in the Kursk region.

The Kremlin continues to promote the "Time of Heroes" program, which aims to appoint veterans of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine to positions in local, regional and federal authorities.

Recall

The invaders continue their offensive in eastern Ukraine, having occupied several settlements. Among them are Lozova, Ivanivka and Shevchenko. In addition, fighting continues in Toretsk, where the enemy has advanced, but the line of contact remains to be clarified.