Is Russia preparing an offensive against the Kyiv region: Zelenskyy named the conditions and a possible direction

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on August 23 that, in the future, Russia may attempt to launch an offensive from Bryansk Oblast in the Chernihiv–Kyiv direction, in particular to create a so-called "buffer zone." At the same time, there is currently no troop grouping near Ukraine's northern border necessary for such an operation, reports UNN.

Details

According to Zelenskyy, the Kremlin's further plans may depend on the situation in eastern Ukraine and the launch of a new wave of mobilization in the Russian Federation.

If he has the success there that he is counting on, then he may redistribute forces to another direction. For example, to create a "buffer zone." There could also be an operation in the Chernihiv–Kyiv regions

Zelenskyy noted that this concerns a possible offensive from Russian territory, specifically Bryansk Oblast. At the same time, Ukraine currently does not see the number of personnel necessary there to conduct a large-scale offensive operation, although it is detecting Russian military equipment near the border.

The president also stated that after the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation, the Russian authorities may carry out an additional mobilization of around 300,000 people. In the view of the Ukrainian leadership, most of this manpower could primarily be sent to eastern Ukraine, where Russia seeks to intensify its offensive actions.

Context

Ukrainian authorities have been reporting for several months on Russia's possible plans to intensify combat operations in northern Ukraine.

In May, Zelenskyy chaired a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief dedicated to possible scenarios of Russian offensive operations in the Chernihiv–Kyiv direction. At the time, the president said that Ukrainian intelligence was analyzing several options for the enemy's actions, including from the territory of Bryansk Oblast and Belarus.

At the end of June, the then Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that the most likely scenario could be a Russian offensive from Bryansk Oblast specifically toward Chernihiv Oblast, rather than directly toward Kyiv. According to him, one of Russia's objectives could be to seize part of the border territory and force Ukraine to redeploy reserves there from other sections of the front.

At the same time, in August, Ukrainian intelligence and the State Border Guard Service reported that they had not detected the formation of a Russian strike force near the northern border.

Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, noted that, to create such a force, Russia would first need to carry out an additional mobilization. According to an assessment by Ukrainian intelligence, if it is conducted in the autumn of 2026, preparing a sufficient number of troops for a large-scale operation could take several months.

The State Border Guard Service also emphasized that it is not currently observing a buildup of Russian forces either near the border with Bryansk Oblast or on the territory of Belarus. At the same time, Ukraine continues to strengthen the defenses of its northern regions, fortifications, and border protection system.

Reminder

At the beginning of August, State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko reported that the enemy was planning an invasion in Chernihiv Oblast in order to divert the Armed Forces of Ukraine.