IMF forecasts Ukraine's financing deficit to reach up to $20 billion by 2027 - Bloomberg

The International Monetary Fund believes that Ukraine's financing needs over the next two years could exceed the Kyiv government's estimates by as much as $20 billion, just as negotiations for a new aid package are set to begin. This was reported by Bloomberg, writes UNN.

Details

It is noted that this discrepancy emerged during IMF staff meetings in Kyiv last week, which focused on external financing for 2026–2027, an informed source said. Reconciling these different estimates is critically important before the Washington-based IMF considers Ukraine's request for a new lending program, as current funding will soon run out.

If the IMF's forecasts are confirmed, Kyiv will likely have to raise billions of dollars in additional support from Western allies each year to maintain its defense against Russia. The war is now in its fourth year with no end in sight, and there is growing concern that the country may not be able to cope with the increasing military expenditures

The IMF is Ukraine's third-largest creditor, but its support comes with strict conditions.

Kyiv insists on its previous estimate: $37.5 billion in necessary financing for two years. At the same time, according to an official familiar with the negotiations, the IMF estimates the needs at an additional $10–20 billion. This person wished to remain anonymous, as the negotiations are being held behind closed doors.

Both sides are expected to agree on a final figure next week. After that, the Ukrainian government, together with the IMF, will appeal to allies for additional funding.

The Cabinet of Ministers and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine declined to comment before an official statement from the IMF. A representative of the fund itself also declined to comment.

Recall

On September 11, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the National Bank, and IMF experts completed discussions on the implementation of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. The meetings lasted from September 3 to 10.

It is noted that the parties discussed the status of the 2025 state budget implementation and the indicators of the draft budget for 2026, medium-term budget planning, and structural reforms provided for by the program.

IMF experts once again noted the effective work of the Government of Ukraine in implementing the EFF program and maintaining the country's financial stability.