How much will bread prices rise next year: market representative's forecast
Kyiv • UNN
Yuriy Duchenko, President of the All-Ukrainian Bakers' Association, said that the Ukrainian bakery market is entering 2026 with high uncertainty. The price of simple bread will remain relatively stable, while high-margin products may rise in price by 10-15% or more than 20% in case of escalation of hostilities or significant power supply disruptions.
The Ukrainian bakery market enters 2026 with high uncertainty: manufacturers warn of a possible price increase, but its scale depends on factors that are difficult to predict. Yuriy Duchenko, President of the All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers, told a UNN journalist about what bread prices to expect in 2026.
The Ukrainian bread market continues to restructure after price fluctuations and changes in consumer habits. But even despite this, as Yuriy Duchenko notes, some bread products, particularly those with simple recipes, may maintain relative price stability.
If current negative trends continue, the price of bread in Ukraine will rise. However, the high level of uncertainty does not allow for setting precise limits on this growth. According to the Association's forecasts, in 2026, the price of bread with a simple recipe will remain relatively stable
At the same time, manufacturers face constant challenges that directly affect the cost of bread products. That is why, as the representative of the All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers notes, energy stability and the situation at the front will be key factors in pricing.
High-margin products may increase in price by 10-15% under a moderate scenario or by more than 20% in the event of an escalation of hostilities or significant disruptions in energy supply
The industry continues to operate in conditions of instability, which complicates production.
"It should be remembered that the situation remains unpredictable and can change rapidly, both positively and negatively. Therefore, the industry operates in conditions of maximum adaptability, reacting to every change in the environment," Duchenko emphasizes.
The market situation can change under the influence of many factors, some of which are unpredictable. That is why the expert's forecasts remain as cautious as possible.
"Any forecasts are conditional and depend on security, energy, and economic stability. We are closely monitoring the dynamics, but the risks remain high," summarized the president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers.
Recall
In 2025, the bakery products market is undergoing significant changes: demand for sweet and confectionery products is falling, as is demand for wheat bread, while demand for bread with simple recipes and rye-wheat varieties is growing.