Drone battles between India and Pakistan open a new chapter in the arms race - Reuters
Kyiv • UNN
India and Pakistan have used combat drones against each other for the first time. Increased use of UAVs is expected, which can hit targets without the risk of escalation.
Amidst the decades-long standoff between India and Pakistan over disputes surrounding the ownership of Kashmir, the militaries of both states have deployed high-performance fighter jets, missiles, and artillery during decades of clashes. However, the last four days of fighting in May marked the first time that New Delhi and Islamabad have used drones against each other on a large scale, reports Reuters, writes UNN.
Details
Fighting ceased after the United States announced mediation for a ceasefire, but the South Asian states, which spent more than $96 billion on defense last year, are now stuck in a drone arms race. This information comes from interviews with 15 people by Reuters, including security officials, industry executives, and analysts in the two countries.
Two of them said they expect increased use of UAVs by neighbors who also possess nuclear weapons, as small drone attacks can hit targets without creating risk to personnel and without provoking uncontrolled escalation.
India plans to invest heavily in local industry and could spend up to $470 million on UAVs over the next 12-24 months, roughly triple the level of spending before the conflict, said Smith Shah of the Drone Federation of India, which represents more than 550 companies and regularly interacts with the government.
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A previously unpublished forecast that emerged after India this month approved approximately $4.6 billion for emergency military purchases was confirmed by two other industry executives. The Indian military plans to use some of this additional funding for combat and surveillance drones. This was stated by two Indian officials familiar with the matter.
Defense equipment purchases in India typically involve multi-year bureaucratic processes, but officials are now inviting drone manufacturers for trials and demonstrations at an unprecedented speed, said Vishal Saxena, vice president of Indian firm ideaForge Technology (IDEF.NS), which manufactures unmanned aerial vehicles.
Meanwhile, the Pakistan Air Force is pushing to acquire more drones as it seeks to avoid the risk of losing its high-end aircraft, a Pakistani source familiar with the matter said.
Pakistan and India deployed advanced 4.5 generation fighter jets during the latest clashes, but Islamabad, which suffers from tight funding, has only about 20 high-end Chinese-made J-10 fighters compared to the three dozen Rafale that Delhi can muster.
Pakistan is likely to build on existing relationships to intensify cooperation with China and Turkey to enhance its drone research and production capabilities, said Oishi Majumdar of defense intelligence firm Janes.
Islamabad relies on cooperation between Pakistan's National Aerospace Science and Technology Park and Turkish defense contractor Baykar, which assembles the YIHA-III drone on site, a Pakistani source said, adding that one device can be manufactured domestically within two to three days.
UAVs in the Indo-Pakistani standoff
India and Pakistan appear to view drone strikes as a way to exert military pressure without immediately provoking large-scale escalation.
Despite losing many drones, both sides are doubling down.
It's about relatively cheap technology. And while drones don't have the shocking and awe-inspiring effect of missiles and fighter jets, they can still evoke a sense of power and purpose in those who launch them.
Indian defense strategists are likely to expand domestic development of loitering munition drones, according to an Indian security source and Sameer Joshi of Indian drone maker NewSpace, which is deepening its research and development of such drones.
Their ability to loiter, evade detection, and strike with precision marked a shift toward high-value, low-cost warfare using mass-produced drones.
Firms like ideaForge, which has supplied more than two thousand drones to Indian security forces, are also investing in increasing their drones' ability to be less vulnerable to electronic warfare.
Another vulnerability that is harder to address is the Indian drone program's reliance on hard-to-replace components from China, a recognized military partner of Pakistan, four Indian drone manufacturers and officials said.
India continues to rely on Chinese-made magnets and lithium for drone batteries, said Shah of the Drone Federation India.
"Supply chain disruption is also a concern," said an ideaForge representative regarding the possibility that Beijing will cut off component supplies in certain situations.
For example, Chinese restrictions on the sale of drones and components to Ukraine have weakened Kyiv's ability to produce critical combat drones, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in response to a Reuters question that Beijing has always implemented export controls on dual-use goods in accordance with domestic laws and regulations, as well as its international obligations.
"Supply chain diversification is a medium- to long-term issue. You can't solve it in the short term," Shah said.
Supplement
India and Pakistan agreed on a phased withdrawal of troops and weapons from Kashmir to positions before the start of the conflict. The decision was made after missile strikes and large-scale military operations.