Czech elections: Babiš's populist party leads in polls, but smaller parties hold the keys to government
Kyiv • UNN
On October 3-4, elections will be held in the Czech Republic, where the populist ANO party of former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš is leading in the polls. However, government formation remains uncertain due to several small parties approaching the 5% threshold.
In the Czech Republic, voters go to parliamentary elections on October 3-4. The populist party of former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, ANO, is leading the polls. However, the path to forming a government remains uncertain, as several smaller parties are approaching the 5% threshold required to enter parliament, Euractiv reports, writes UNN.
Details
ANO's support remains stable at around 30%, allowing Babiš to confidently outpace his rivals. The center-right coalition Spolu - the senior partner in the outgoing government - is polling at around 20%, while another coalition member, the STAN party, is polling at 11-13%. The far-right SPD, led by Tomio Okamura, has a similar rating, and Piráti is at around 10%.
However, two smaller groups could turn the tide of the vote. The pro-Russian communist coalition Stačilo! is polling at 7-8%. Meanwhile, the far-right Motoristé party, which opposes "green diktats" such as EU climate and transport regulations, is fighting for 5-6%. If both parties enter parliament, it could complicate coalition arithmetic for both the government and the opposition, the publication writes.
Coalition options
Babiš has repeatedly stated that he would like to govern the country alone, although this seems unlikely. ANO could try to form a minority government, seeking special support on budget issues and a vote of confidence – a strategy he has used before.
The most obvious coalition partner would be Motoristé. Both parties belong to the Patriots for Europe group at the EU level, share a Eurosceptic sentiment without calling for withdrawal from NATO or the EU, and rely on a strong populist stance, the publication points out.
"I don't know, I'm not dealing with that. I'm not interested in any other parties right now," Babiš told Deník N when asked about a possible deal, although most analysts expect Motoristé to be his first choice.
An alliance with the far-right SPD remains possible but problematic. Okamura's party advocates for referendums on leaving both the EU and NATO, which Babiš has publicly rejected. Stačilo! would create similar problems, although both parties could theoretically set aside their referendum demands to open the way for negotiations, the publication notes.
If ANO does not win a majority, the current ruling parties - Spolu, STAN, and Piráti - could consider renewing their anti-ANO alliance. All three parties insist that they will not govern with Babiš, and he also states that he will not cooperate with them. But if the distribution of seats leaves no other viable option, political red lines may be tested after the vote, the publication notes.
President's decision
The Czech presidential system adds another layer of uncertainty. According to the Czech constitution, the president appoints the prime minister and cabinet. Although the Czech parliament must approve the government's composition within 30 days, previous presidents have actively used these powers, giving President Petr Pavel leverage over Babiš's possible return to office.
Pavel, a staunch supporter of the EU and NATO, has made it clear that he will carefully examine any coalition for its compliance with the country's international obligations. He has also hinted that he could block Babiš if his allies promote anti-EU or anti-NATO policies.
In previous comments to Czech media, Pavel outlined a clear threshold: "Anyone who calls for the Czech Republic to leave NATO or the EU harms our country in my eyes. And this is one of the criteria I will consider when receiving a proposal for the composition of the new government."
With ANO almost certain to come in first, but coalition formation highly uncertain, the outcome of the weekend's vote will depend not so much on the favorite, but on whether smaller parties cross that threshold, and on how willing Babiš and his rivals are to backtrack on their promises after the votes are counted, the publication writes.