China's goals: expert assesses the likelihood of Beijing's participation in negotiations on the war in Ukraine
Kyiv • UNN
Political scientist Ruslan Bortnyk says that China is interested in mediating negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but does not believe that the time is right for this.
After meeting with China's Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump stated that the leaders of the countries discussed Russia's war against Ukraine "very seriously." According to the American leader, Xi Jinping will "help" efforts to end the war in Ukraine. What real impact this meeting of the two world leaders will have and what our country can expect, we tell in the UNN material.
The likelihood of China's participation in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia
Political scientist Ruslan Bortnyk, in a comment to UNN, indicated that earlier the United States avoided the topic of China's participation in the negotiation process to end the war. But now they are changing their position against the backdrop of the approaching first anniversary of Trump's presidency to demonstrate at least some progress in the negotiation process.
Previously, the United States avoided such a situation so as not to give China the opportunity to gain additional reputational points as a moderator between Ukraine and Russia. But now, against the backdrop of the approaching anniversary of Trump's presidency, and no significant success has been achieved in resolving the Russian-Ukrainian war, and without China, it is generally impossible to influence Russia today, so I do not rule out that Trump will try to involve Xi Jinping in the negotiation process, possibly promising new concessions or cooperation models.
According to him, the United States wants China to reduce its consumption of Russian gas, which would significantly harm the aggressor state's economy. However, Bortnyk clarifies that this was not an official meeting of leaders - Washington and Beijing are currently more observing each other.
What goals China pursues
China is interested in mediating negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but does not believe that the time is right for this. Its position is currently one of waiting. At the same time, Bortnyk reminded that back in 2022-2023, Chinese peace initiatives did not differ much from those currently proposed by Donald Trump.
China's 12 principles, initiatives jointly with the countries of the Global South in 2022-2023, offered exactly what the White House administration is proposing today: an unconditional ceasefire along the front line as an initial stage of negotiations, followed by a rebalancing of Eastern Europe and the search for a new balance model between Russia, Ukraine, and other key players in the region.
China's pressure on Russia
The political scientist emphasized that China has enough authority and strength to force Russia to cease fire. However, Russia's defeat is not in Beijing's interests. At the same time, it is interested in Western technologies and investments, so it is now forced to balance between two camps.
China has the power and authority for literally everything in the world. But China does not use power and authority if it does not serve its interests. Today, Russia's defeat is not in China's interests. But it is in China's interests to maintain its presence in international trade, access to investments and technologies of Western countries. China is trying to balance between these key principles, but the main thing for China is to buy time to catch up and overtake Western countries while they are immersed in the conflict with Russia.
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