Businesses downgrade their assessments for the second month amid Russian strikes and expect prices to rise
Kyiv • UNN
The BIAI fell to 48.2 in September due to attacks, expensive resources, and a labor shortage. Businesses expect goods and services to become more expensive.
For the second consecutive month, businesses slightly worsened their performance results. This is happening against the backdrop of russia’s ongoing attacks on production facilities, logistics and warehouses, expensive fuel, and a labor shortage. Businesses forecast rising prices. UNN writes about this, citing a National Bank of Ukraine survey dated October 1.
In September, businesses gave restrained assessments of their own economic performance. In September 2026, the Business Activity Expectations Index stood at 48.2, compared with 48.3 in August 2026 (50.4 in September 2025)
Economic activity was constrained by:
- further deterioration of the security situation;
- the destruction of logistics facilities, production facilities, and warehouses;
- higher business expenses due to rising fuel prices;
- limited domestic supply of goods and services;
- a shortage of qualified personnel;
- a slight strengthening of exchange-rate expectations.
At the same time, positive factors included:
- a stable electricity supply situation;
- a high harvest;
- the development of new logistics routes.
What businesses expect across sectors
Industrial enterprises restored positive assessments of their activity, thanks to an improvement in the situation in the processing industry and stable conditions in the energy sector.
At the same time, construction companies, after six months of positive sentiment, gave restrained assessments, citing the suspension of state funding for the restoration of roads and infrastructure, the seasonal nature of construction work, and rising costs.
Trade and service-sector companies were also restrained in their assessments of their performance. Factors included further destruction of warehouse infrastructure, costly and complex logistics, rising fuel prices, and a shortage of qualified personnel. Trading companies expected a further decline in turnover and purchases of goods for sale, as well as in inventories / stocks of goods for sale. Respondents anticipated a further decline in their trading margins.
The majority of respondents in all sectors expected an acceleration in the growth rates of both purchase prices / prices for raw materials and supplies, and prices / tariffs for their own products / services, as well as the cost of goods purchased for sale.
The situation on the labor market remains ambiguous. Companies in most sectors were inclined to reduce staff, most notably in the services sector. Only construction companies expected an increase in the number of employees.