2024 is likely to be the first year with an average temperature above 1.5°C
Kyiv • UNN
2024 could be the first year when global warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The El Niño phenomenon and CO₂ emissions will lead to extreme weather conditions around the world.
In 2024, global warming could exceed critical levels for the first time and be 1.5°C warmer than years in the pre-industrial era. Rising temperatures, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, have led to extreme weather events ranging from floods and tropical cyclones to droughts and forest fires. UNN writes about this with reference to Sciencealert.
Details
This year could be the first year when global warming reaches 1.5°C above the pre-industrial period (1850-1900), surpassing last year's record of 0.60°C above the 1991-2020 average. This forecast is confirmed by data from Copernicus, Berkeley Earth and the British Meteorological Service, released on the eve of the UN Climate Summit COP29in Azerbaijan.
Although the warming intensified at the beginning of the year due to the El Niño phenomenon, the abnormal heat has persisted even after it weakened a few months ago. This excess heat, caused by the use of fossil fuels, is said to have already led to the deaths of people and animals, as well as an increase in natural disasters. It is now estimated that three-quarters of the world's population will face extreme weather conditions over the next 20 years.
This excess energy in the atmosphere is throwing climate systems out of balance, like a spinning top before it falls. In the last month alone, this has resulted in tragic floods in Valencia, Hurricane Milton in the United States, forest fires in Peru, and the loss of more than 1 million tons of rice due to flooding in Bangladesh, causing prices of staple foods to rise significantly.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, notes that record rains and floods, sharp intensification of tropical cyclones, deadly heat, prolonged drought and powerful forest fires that have been observed around the world this year have become a new reality and give an idea of the future.
The WHO explains that a temperature increase of 1.5°C per year does not mean that we have permanently exceeded the Paris Agreement target, as this target is based on a decade-long average, and the situation can change due to phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña.
However, some scientists believe that the threshold has already been crossed, and this is jeopardizing vital Earth systems, including the Atlantic Current, the Amazon rainforest, and the polar ice sheets. Climate scientist Mark Howden of the Australian National University warns that without immediate action to reduce emissions, the world could face warming of up to 3°C.
We're already seeing significant impacts globally in almost every ecosystem, with about 1.25 degrees of temperature increase in the last decade. Once we start moving towards these larger numbers, 2.5 to 2.93 degrees, we are likely to be hit very hard by climate change. The costs of such climate change are enormous, and they far exceed the costs of reducing emissions
"However, even the smallest efforts to reduce warming today can save lives in the future, no matter where we are in this difficult situation. It is important to realize that every fraction of a degree matters. Regardless of whether we are below or above 1.5°C, each additional temperature increase increases climate extremes, their impacts and risks," Saulo emphasized.
Recall
According to the Global Carbon Project, global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will reach a record level in 2024, increasing by 0.8%. They also noted that over the past decade, total CO₂ emissions have reached a plateau.
