Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine: what is known about the methods of pressure on Russia?

Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine: what is known about the methods of pressure on Russia?

Kyiv  •  UNN

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Trump intends to use tough methods of pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine within 100 days. The plan includes economic sanctions, blackmail, and possible involvement of China to influence Putin.

U.S. President Donald Trump is determined to end the war in Ukraine in 100 days by using decisive methods of pressure on Russia. These include demands, economic sanctions, blackmail, and the possibility of involving China to influence Putin. The American side emphasizes that Russia has limited time to resolve the conflict.

Political analyst Taras Zahorodnyi said in a commentary to UNN that ending the war in 100 days could be realistic, judging by how decisively Trump has started to act and how he is negotiating.

First of all, these are not 100 days for Kellogg (Trump's special envoy Keith Kellogg - ed.), these are 100 days for the Russians. Then Trump made an outright challenge to the Russians. What he said, I believe, was an appeal not to Putin, but to the Russian elites. His message can be summarized as follows: "Get rid of this psycho, and then we'll talk

-Taras Zahorodnyi explained. 

The political analyst noted that Trump humiliated Putin several times in his address and showed that his state is nothing, and he is not a partner, but a boss. 

"Trump said that the USSR had no victories in World War II. He knows that this is a very painful topic for Putin," the political analyst added. 

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Then Trump said he would do Russia a favor, that is, stop "their catastrophe," Zagorodny said. And then the US president began to openly blackmail, saying that if Putin does not come and end the war, then it will be even worse. 

"And if Putin comes to meet with Trump, he may not return to Moscow, because he will be captured anyway. The next day, Trump reminded us that we need to reduce the price of oil, and this is a disaster for the Russian economy," Zagorodny said. 

According to the political scientist, if Trump fulfills his 100 days at this pace, the war may end. 

Zahorodnyi noted that the US president will force the Russian side to fulfill the demands, but Ukraine should also increase its demands, not just stop the Russians. 

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Zelensky is very right to say that we need to talk to them from the position of February 24, from this line. And I am sure that soon he will say: let them take their belongings and leave the territory of Ukraine. Because there is Zelensky's peace plan, voted on at the UN, the General Assembly. It contains demands for Russia - reparations, withdrawal, which the United States of America voted for, and everything else. Therefore, given Trump's determination, I am already starting to believe in it

- The political scientist said. 

According to him, Trump realizes that there is no point in talking to Putin about anything.   "In fact, he has given an ultimatum to the Russian elites, and this is very good," Zagorodny added. 

Zagorodny said it doesn't matter when Russia will respond. Trump can give an ultimatum at any time and immediately move to action and blackmail, for example, by lowering the price of oil. 

The political analyst noted that Trump needs to reduce oil prices not only because of Russia, but also to industrialize the economy and reduce inflation in the United States. Therefore, in such a situation, the American side will not wait for anyone. 

Zagorodny explained that if Trump notices that Russia is not responding to his demands, he will immediately explain how this will threaten Russia. Trump will constantly apply pressure. 

"For example, the US president is currently expelling migrants from the United States, including children of the Russian elite who are 'suffering' in America. Who says they can't be put on one plane so that they don't "suffer in this damned America" and fly back to their "blooming Russia"? For example, Lavrov's daughter or others. I think it is possible under certain circumstances," the political scientist suggested. 

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According to the expert, the next step in Trump's strategy may be to increase pressure on China to engage it in resolving the conflict with Russia. One of the methods of such pressure could be the introduction of duties on Chinese goods. Initially, the duties could be 10%, which would signal Beijing to take more active steps. In the absence of progress, this percentage could rise to 15%. 

This strategy is aimed at forcing China to influence Russia using its own leverage.

China may turn out to be a key mediator capable of increasing economic and political pressure on the Kremlin. 

This approach is part of the general policy of the United States, Zagorodnyi notes, which reflects its role as a world leader. Since 1945, American policy has often been based on the use of force and tough measures to preserve democracy in the free world. The political scientist reminded that conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, Laos and other regions confirm this trend. Trump, continuing this line, will not stop before taking tough actions, even if it entails accusations of "imperialism.

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Taras Zahorodnyi believes that if Russia continues to refuse to make concessions, its economic situation may become even more complicated.

Against this backdrop, Trump is likely to escalate his demands on Russia.  In particular, he may insist that the Russians pay $300 billion in reparations from their frozen accounts.

As Zagorodny notes, Trump has the time and opportunity to do so.  

The key question, however, is whether there will be the political will to use these opportunities. The Americans can "squeeze" anything out of Russia. If the Kremlin dares to wage wars without rules, the United States can respond in a similar way.

Zagorodniy emphasizes that Trump is already hinting at such a scenario: Russian infrastructure could be destroyed to the point where it cannot be rebuilt. This can be done by unknown persons, and not necessarily Ukrainians, in a cynical and effective manner. 

In addition, the United States is able to completely "turn off" Russia from the world. 

Regarding possible talks between the US and Russia without Ukraine's participation, Zahorodnyi notes that there are no risks in this. The President of Ukraine is doing the right thing: he insists that the Ukrainian side meet with Trump first, and only then trilateral talks will take place. At the same time, Russia is still not ready to engage in a dialog with Ukrainians. 

According to Zahorodnyi, this allows Zelenskyy to take a stronger position. He will be able to argue that the Russians are avoiding negotiations and will demand greater US intervention, including by providing Ukraine with additional weapons.

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