The United States offers Belarus a “grand bargain” that could reduce Russia's influence on it

The United States expects to conclude a deal with Belarus, according to which the country should release "many" political prisoners. In return, the US will ease sanctions on Belarusian banks and potash exports. The New York Times (NYT) writes about this with reference to sources, UNN reports.

Details

According to The New York Times, before the release of three political prisoners from Belarus on February 12, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christopher W. Smith and two other American officials met with the country's self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, and the head of the KGB of Belarus.

This was Lukashenko's first meeting with a senior State Department official in five years and the beginning of what could have very important implications for thawing frozen relations between the United States and Russia's closest ally

During a speech at the US Embassy on February 12, Christopher Smith called the release of the three Belarusian political prisoners a "huge victory" and linked it to President Donald Trump's "Peace through Strength" policy.

Sources told the NYT that at a meeting of Western diplomats in Vilnius on Thursday, Smith said that the next step could be a major deal under which Lukashenko would release many political prisoners, including prominent ones. In exchange, the United States will ease sanctions on Belarusian banks and exports of potassium, a key ingredient in fertilizers, of which Belarus is a major producer.

According to diplomats who attended the briefing, Smith said that during a conversation with  Lukashenko, he asked him about his readiness to reduce the level of repression and received confirmation of such readiness.

As the publication notes, another key goal of the United States, according to Smith, is to create conditions for Lukashenko that would allow him to at least partially break free from Russia's influence.

Another important goal, Smith told the diplomats, is to give Lukashenko some breathing room outside of Russia's orbit of influence

Smith also noted that Lukashenko showed no signs of ill health, looked confident and was in full control of the situation.

Belarusian state television presenter Ihor Tur suggested that Smith was not the main representative of the American delegation and that another high-ranking official could have been present at the meeting.

It is noted that Smith, who was in charge of Belarus policy in the Joe Biden administration, began talks with US allies last year about the possibility of easing sanctions, but had not previously visited Minsk to meet with Lukashenko.

The sanctions on potash fertilizers cut off an important economic lifeline for the Belarusian ruler, but brought windfall profits to Russia, another major producer, as world prices soared. Some Belarusian potash continued to enter world markets through Russia rather than the previous, cheaper route through Lithuania

Former head of Poland's Foreign Intelligence Service Piotr Krawczyk, who worked with the first Trump administration to weaken Russia's control over Belarus, said Belarus is "part of a broader American approach to Russia." 

Negotiations with Belarus create additional leverage for the United States to signal to Russia that it should be more attentive to American arguments

"The United States is 'confronting Russia in Ukraine, in Africa, in the oil and gas sector, and in several other strategic areas,'" added Peter Kravchyk.

Recall

On February 12, three people were released from Belarusian prisons , including a US citizen and journalist Andrey Kuznetsik. The Radio Liberty journalist was reunited with his family in Vilnius after three years in prison.

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