The return of migrants is expected in 2028, but at a slower pace than the previous migration wave — NBU
Kyiv • UNN
In 2026–2027, annual migration from Ukraine is forecast at around 200,000 people. In 2028, the NBU expects 100 thousand migrants to return.
The return of Ukrainian migrants from abroad is expected in 2028 — a net inflow of around 100,000 people, while migration will continue until then, including in 2027, at a level of 200,000 people annually. This is stated in the NBU’s October 2026 inflation report, UNN writes.
The NBU’s forecast assumes that the net population outflow in 2026–2027 will amount to around 0.2 million people annually. At the same time, in 2028, a net return of migrants (around 0.1 million people) is expected as security risks decrease and the economic situation improves
At the same time, according to the NBU’s forecast, the labor shortage will persist.
"Amid weakening economic activity, businesses’ demand for workers has declined; however, the overall labor shortage persists due to mobilization and migration processes," the report says.
However, the National Bank notes that "the structural labor shortage will continue to support wage growth, although its pace will gradually slow."
"Real wages are expected to grow by 11.4% in 2026. At the same time, their growth will slow to 4–5% per year in 2027–2028," the report states.