Sanctions are breaking Russia's oil sector: December production fell to a 1.5-year low - intelligence
Kyiv • UNN
In December 2025, Russian oil companies sharply reduced crude oil production. This happened against the backdrop of increased Western sanctions pressure and falling world prices.
In December 2025, Russian oil-producing companies sharply reduced crude oil production, recording one of the worst figures in the last year and a half. Average daily production decreased to 9.326 million barrels amid increased Western sanctions pressure on buyers of Russian raw materials, which is increasingly paralyzing export channels. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, writes UNN.
Details
The current level is more than 100,000 barrels per day lower than in November and almost 250,000 barrels below the quota set within the framework of OPEC+ agreements. This reduction was the largest since June 2024, which emphasizes the deepening structural problems of the industry, rather than temporary fluctuations.
The sale of Russian oil abroad is rapidly becoming more difficult. Despite the continued export from Russian ports at about 4 million barrels per day, increasingly large volumes of raw materials remain without end buyers. Since the end of November 2025, the volume of unsold Russian oil, accumulating mainly at sea, has increased by approximately 30 million barrels - to 185 million barrels, increasing logistical and financial risks for producers.
An additional deterrent remains the fall in world oil prices, which sharply reduces the profitability of production. Under such conditions, Russia's quota within the OPEC+ agreement at 9.574 million barrels per day will remain unfulfilled: companies have no economic incentives to increase production at current price parameters.
The combination of these factors indicates the systemic nature of the crisis in the Russian oil sector. Even if prices stabilize, Russia is unlikely to be able to quickly return to OPEC+ quotas. This means inevitable under-receipt of foreign exchange earnings and increased pressure on the federal budget in 2026, forcing the Kremlin to compensate for losses by increasing the tax burden on other sectors, more actively attracting debt instruments, or reducing investments - steps that will only deepen the degradation of the oil industry.