Russia's stagnation on the battlefield puts the Kremlin in a worse position to obtain political concessions - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
According to analysts' assessments, the Kremlin seeks to create a false sense of political urgency for its negotiating partners. In this way, Russia is trying to force Ukraine to cede the unoccupied part of the Donbas, which Russian forces have been unable to take on the battlefield.
In the spring of 2026, Russian troops are demonstrating worse results on the battlefield than when the Kremlin emphasized its demands regarding the Donetsk region in 2025. This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), according to UNN.
Details
It is noted that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and other high-ranking Kremlin officials began to intensify their demands for Ukraine to surrender territory that Russia does not control, especially the remainder of the unoccupied Donetsk region, in early 2025, when the battlefield was more favorable for Russian troops than in the spring of 2026.
Since then, Ukrainian forces have been increasing Russia's economic, human, and material losses in the war. Ukrainian troops are constantly increasing the range, volume, and intensity of their long-range strike campaigns against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets to exploit the Kremlin's inability to defend against Ukrainian strikes,
It is pointed out that in early 2026, Ukrainian forces significantly intensified their medium-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower, which degraded Russia's ability to conduct offensive operations. Thus, during the first four months of 2026, Russia's advancement in the theater of operations slowed to an average of 2.9 square kilometers per day, and Russian forces suffered a net loss of territory in April 2026.
The Kremlin is trying to create a false sense of political urgency for its negotiating partners, attempting to force Ukraine to cede the unoccupied part of Donbas that Russian troops have been unable to take on the battlefield. Ushakov (Putin's aide - ed.) is likely now trying to justify the Kremlin's refusal to participate in negotiations... even though Russia's stagnation on the battlefield puts the Kremlin in a worse position to obtain significant political concessions,
They suggest that Ukrainian forces can and will continue to inflict greater losses on Russian troops as part of the ongoing spring-summer offensive of 2026, which has so far not yielded significant operational gains for the Russian Federation.
Recall
According to ISW estimates, in April 2026, Russian forces suffered a net loss of territory controlled in the Ukrainian theater of operations for the first time since Ukraine's operation in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation in August 2024.