Russian customs will not meet the 2025 plan, deficit to reach almost $25 billion - intelligence

The Federal Customs Service of Russia will not be able to fulfill the Ministry of Finance's plan for customs revenues to the federal budget for 2025. The deficit will reach $24.7 billion, UNN reports with reference to the Foreign Intelligence Service.

Details

The head of the FCS of the Russian Federation, Viktor Pikalyov, stated that instead of the planned $98.8 billion, only $73.7 billion will be received by the budget. This means a deficit of $24.7 billion, or more than 25% of the plan.

As of October, the FCS transferred only $55.6 billion, and even taking into account expected revenues by the end of the year, the figure will remain the lowest in the last five years. Compared to 2024, when customs duties amounted to $90.8 billion, the drop will be about 19%, or $17.3 billion.

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The sharp reduction in customs payments signals a systemic weakening of the revenue base of the Russian budget. The decline in imports due to falling domestic demand and the reduction in exports under the pressure of sanctions have led to the depletion of the import-export potential of the economy 

According to intelligence, the government is trying to compensate for losses by raising taxes in 2026. However, this step will inevitably hit investment activity and industrial production, which will only increase the risks of recession.

The failure with customs revenues becomes another indicator of the deep structural problems of the Russian economy, which is losing its ability to generate stable revenues even from traditional sources 

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