Rising oil prices are not saving russia’s budget from falling revenues - intelligence
Kyiv • UNN
In September, russia’s budget received only $5.28 billion in oil and gas revenues, down 22.3% year-on-year. Compensation payments to oil companies reached $25.7 billion.
The sharp rise in oil prices in September did not bring a corresponding increase in revenues for the Russian budget. The Kremlin is forced to return a significant portion of the taxes collected to oil companies, compensating them for the costs of supporting the domestic fuel market. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, UNN writes.
In September, gross receipts from oil and gas taxes amounted to about $10.16 billion. After compensation payments and tax deductions, only $5.28 billion reached the budget—22.3% less than in the same month of 2025. The state effectively returned nearly half of the funds collected to the sector
The largest increase was in fuel damper payments, from $2.30 billion in August to $3.56 billion in September. This was 55% more than the previous month and the largest amount since April 2022.
As the intelligence service notes, high oil prices only increase the amount of such compensation payments. The more profitable it is to sell oil on foreign markets, the greater the difference from domestic prices, which the state compensates fuel producers for.
The situation is worsened by declining refined-products production. Due to the fuel shortage, the Kremlin is restricting fuel exports and increasing imports. In August–September, seaborne deliveries of oil products to the Russian Federation amounted to about 350,000–370,000 tonnes per month. Compensation was also extended to imported fuel, shifting additional costs onto the federal budget.
From January through September, the Russian Federation’s oil and gas revenues fell by 17.2% year-on-year, to $63.82 billion. At the same time, oil companies received about $25.7 billion in compensation.
Against this backdrop, Russia’s Finance Ministry lowered its forecast for oil and gas revenues in 2026 to $88.4 billion—14.5% below its previous estimate. In the first nine months, the budget received about 72% of the new annual plan.
For the Russian budget, the problem is no longer only the price of oil. Declining refining and fuel shortages are forcing the Kremlin to spend increasingly more money on maintaining the domestic market. If disruptions at oil refineries continue, high oil prices will not offset these costs, and the oil and gas sector will remain a source of increasingly weaker budget revenues