New Zealand finds itself on the brink of a change in government: who won the election and why the country is awaiting the final results

In New Zealand, after the parliamentary elections on November 7, none of the leading political forces secured a convincing victory. The incumbent center-right coalition of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is provisionally retaining a majority of just one seat. The formation of a new government could take several weeks. This was reported by UNN, citing Reuters and the Electoral Commission of New Zealand.

Details

According to preliminary data from the Electoral Commission of New Zealand, the Labour Party, led by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, received 29.36% of the vote, while the National Party of incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon received 29.21%.

Despite Labour's slight lead in the number of votes, the National Party is provisionally securing 42 seats, while Labour is securing 36.

Another 16 seats in Parliament may go to representatives of the Green Party, 13 to ACT New Zealand, 12 to New Zealand First, seven to the centrist Opportunity Party, and five to the Māori Party.

This means that the incumbent governing coalition, which includes the National Party, ACT, and New Zealand First, will provisionally control 67 of the 131 seats in Parliament. At least 66 seats are required to form a majority.

At the same time, the final distribution of seats may change after the counting of special votes is completed. According to the Electoral Commission, approximately 399,000 ballots remain unprocessed, accounting for about 14% of the total vote. These include, in particular, votes cast by citizens overseas, voters outside their electorates, and other ballots requiring additional verification. Historically, such votes have more often increased support for center-left political forces. Therefore, after the final count, the incumbent coalition could lose its narrow lead.

It should be noted that the official election results are scheduled to be announced on November 27. Until then, ballots will be verified, votes recounted, and results in individual electorates clarified.

Who could decide the fate of the new government

One of the biggest surprises of the election was the success of the centrist Opportunity Party, led by 38-year-old Culley Wong. The political force, which is entering Parliament for the first time, provisionally received 5.96% of the vote and seven seats. If the incumbent coalition loses its parliamentary majority, the Opportunity Party could play a decisive role in forming the new government. Wong has already said she is ready to consider various forms of political cooperation, including joining a coalition or supporting the government in key parliamentary votes.

Despite this, significant differences remain between the centrists and the largest parties over economic policy, particularly property taxation and income redistribution.

Why Parliament could become record-large

Another feature of the election was the provisional increase in the number of parliamentary seats from the usual 120 to 131. This is related to New Zealand's mixed-member proportional electoral system, which allows parties to retain seats won in single-member electorates even if their number exceeds the representation provided for by the results of the nationwide party vote. As a result, Parliament could gain 11 additional seats. The final number of MPs will depend on the official results.

What will happen next

Until a new Cabinet is formed, Christopher Luxon will continue to serve as head of government. After the final results are announced, political parties will be able to begin negotiations on forming a parliamentary majority.

If the governing coalition loses a sufficient number of seats, Labour leader Chris Hipkins will have a chance to form an alternative government. To do so, he may need the support of the Greens, the Māori Party, and the centrist Opportunity Party.

The negotiations are expected to last several weeks. The first sitting of the newly elected Parliament must take place no later than January 14, 2027.

Recall

The Parliament of New Zealand passed a law granting English official-language status, but the decision drew criticism from linguists, lawyers, and some lawmakers, who called the legislation unnecessary since 95% of the country’s population already speaks English.