Kellogg's Plan: How the USA is Changing Its Approach to the War in Ukraine and Relations with Russia
Kyiv • UNN
The Telegraph reveals details of the implementation of U.S. Special Representative Keith Kellogg's plan to coerce Ukraine into negotiations with Russia. The plan involves limiting military assistance to Kyiv and the possible lifting of sanctions on Moscow.
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is gradually implementing a plan developed by U.S. Special Representative Keith Kellogg to pressure Ukraine into negotiations with Russia. This document was published last year and proposed limiting military aid to Kyiv, changing the U.S. position on NATO, and possibly lifting sanctions on Moscow. This was reported by The Telegraph, writes UNN.
Details
According to media reports, the decision by America to halt arms and aid supplies to Ukraine, as well as the scandal between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office, has caused understandable outrage among Western allies.
Trump's tactics of subordinating Ukraine and forcing the country into negotiations follows a carefully thought-out plan written and published last summer by none other than Keith Kellogg.
Moreover, he wrote in April last year that reducing military aid to Ukraine could be used to coerce Kyiv into negotiations.
Here is what his plan titled "How the 'America First' foreign policy reduced risks associated with Russia during the Trump administration" included and how it is being implemented:
Excerpt 1
"We believe that the most important way in which the 'America First' approach to national security could impact the war in Ukraine would be to prevent it. A strong and decisive president who would confront Russian President Vladimir Putin with a tough and consistent U.S. foreign policy towards Russia, Ukraine, and NATO could have prevented Putin from ordering the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022."
What is really happening?
Despite statements about a tough policy towards Russia, Trump began negotiations with the Kremlin after an unexpected phone call. He insisted on Russia's return to the G7 and refused to openly blame Moscow for the invasion of Ukraine. This approach raises serious concerns among U.S. allies, as it may signal further concessions to Russia without security guarantees for Ukraine.
Excerpt 2
"In particular, this would mean an official U.S. policy aimed at a ceasefire and resolving the conflict in Ukraine through negotiations. The United States will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defense to ensure that Russia does not take any further steps forward and does not attack again after a ceasefire or a peace agreement is reached. However, future American military aid will require Ukraine's participation in peace negotiations with Russia."
What is really happening?
After a sharp quarrel between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office, the U.S. suddenly halted arms supplies to Ukraine and also suspended intelligence sharing. This was an unexpected blow to the Ukrainian military, which was counting on continued support from Washington. The lack of military aid significantly complicates Ukraine's defense and strengthens Russia's position in potential negotiations.
Excerpt 3
"To convince Putin to join peace negotiations, President Biden and other NATO leaders must offer to postpone Ukraine's NATO membership for a long period in exchange for a comprehensive peace agreement with verifiable security guarantees."
What is really happening?
The U.S. is already effectively implementing this point. Washington has stated that Ukraine's NATO membership is an "unrealistic outcome of negotiations," thereby confirming Kellogg's thesis. This position coincided with the start of negotiations between Trump and Putin, which only heightens the concerns of the Ukrainian authorities.
Without NATO membership, Europe will be left alone with Ukraine.
The United Kingdom and France are forming a "coalition of the willing" to send troops to Ukraine to ensure the implementation of any peace agreement, but this will only happen if they receive support from the U.S., which is currently not expected.
Excerpt 4
"Ukraine will not be asked to abandon its goal of reclaiming all its territory, but it will agree to use diplomacy rather than force, understanding that this will require a future diplomatic breakthrough, which is likely to not happen until Putin leaves office."
What is really happening?
This situation is unfolding exactly as Lieutenant General Kellogg predicted in his plan. U.S. officials have one by one issued statements that Ukraine must concede territory to Russia as payment for peace.
Even before negotiations began, Zelensky stated that it was unrealistic to expect a military victory that would allow the expulsion of Russian troops from his country, but emphasized that diplomatic efforts in this direction would not cease.
Excerpt 5
"Until this happens, the United States and its allies are committed to fully lifting sanctions on Russia and normalizing relations only after it signs a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine."
What is really happening?
Washington is already considering the possibility of partially easing sanctions against Russia after the cessation of hostilities. Meanwhile, the European Union and the United Kingdom maintain a tougher stance and insist on continuing pressure on Moscow.
Excerpt 6
"We also call for the introduction of taxes on the sale of Russian energy resources to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine."
What is really happening?
Trump stated that he is "seriously considering" the possibility of imposing new sanctions and tariffs against Russia because it is "bombing Ukraine like crazy." But there are no signs that these measures will be implemented after the war ends.
Meanwhile, last week Mr. Trump acknowledged that it is "easier" for him to deal with Russia than with Ukraine in his efforts to end the three-year war, and emphasized that he trusts Putin.
"I trust him," Mr. Trump said. "Honestly, it is getting harder for me to deal with Ukraine, and they have no cards... Maybe it will be easier to deal with Russia."
Excerpt 7
"By allowing Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength, as well as informing Russia of the consequences if it does not adhere to the terms of future peace negotiations, the United States could achieve a negotiated outcome on terms that align with the interests of both the U.S. and Ukraine. Part of this agreed outcome should include provisions in which we establish a long-term security architecture for Ukraine's defense, focusing on bilateral security protection."
What is really happening?
In practice, the lack of clear security guarantees from the U.S. has only heightened tensions in the relationship between Trump and Zelensky. This has forced Ukraine's European allies to seek alternative ways to support Kyiv, as the reliability of the U.S. as a partner has come into question.
Zelensky is now proposing a partial ceasefire that would suspend long-range strikes on cities and energy infrastructure but maintain skirmishes along the front line, which are harder to control. This would allow him to demonstrate to Trump the necessity of American security guarantees, as Kyiv believes that Putin will ultimately violate his terms.
