ISW: Russian forces will not be able to create a strategic reserve and accelerate the offensive in 2026
Kyiv • UNN
The Institute for the Study of War predicts that the Russian armed forces will not be able to create a strategic reserve, which will force them to advance slowly at the current pace in 2026. The limitations of Russia's available military force are a significant factor preventing rapid advancement.
The Russian Armed Forces are currently unable to create a strategic reserve and therefore will likely be forced to advance slowly at the current pace and scale next year. This is stated in a material by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reported by UNN.
Details
Analysts indicate that Russia is preparing to conscript more reservists in an attempt to create a strategic reserve given the consistently high level of losses in Ukraine.
Russian forces are currently maintaining a personnel replenishment rate sufficient to replace losses, but cannot create large enough reserves to be able to replace the front without redeploying personnel from other areas. The requirement to draw reserves from some sections of the front line to focus on operationally important tasks often leaves Russia's flanks understaffed, creating vulnerabilities, sometimes allowing Ukrainian forces to counterattack and regain territory
They remind that Ukrainian forces recently managed to regain territories north of Huliaipole and liberated a significant part of the lands in the direction of Dobropillia from the occupiers. At the same time, Ukraine's liberation of Kupyansk also became possible due to the concentration of Russian troops in other places on the front line and the absence of ready Russian operational reserves in that area.
Russian forces are currently unable to open a new front and expand recent limited cross-border attacks in Sumy and Kharkiv regions. The limitations of Russia's available military force, as opposed to its overall numerical superiority in population, are a serious constraint on Russian operations and will likely remain so next year
They predict that Russian forces are unlikely to fundamentally change the pace and scale of Russian advances along the front line in 2026 if support for Ukraine continues at its current level.
"The scale and pace of Russian advances are limited not only by the lack of mobilized military personnel, but also because the Russian Ministry of Defense has optimized Russian forces for positional warfare instead of focusing on restoring maneuver warfare. Russian forces are currently unable to conduct maneuver warfare on the scale necessary for rapid operational-level advances. Russian forces are currently unable to address any of the factors complicating their ability to make rapid advances or significantly increase current rates of advance," ISW summarizes.
Recall
The highest military-political leadership of the aggressor country lies about the complete capture of Pokrovsk, Huliaipole, and Myrnohrad, as well as control over half of Kostiantynivka. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council refute these statements, emphasizing that fighting continues and the Russians do not control the cities.