Europe seeks ways to replace US military aid for Ukraine

Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken about the imminent end of the war in Ukraine. But his statements raise concern, because there is speculation that the United States may reduce military aid to force Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia. These concerns are reinforced by the appointment of Keith Kellogg, the former US general, to the post of "special representative for Ukraine and Russia." Earlier, he proposed suspending military support for Kiev in order to end the war.

This is reported by UNN with reference to Bloomberg.

Details

New challenges for Europe

European countries cannot fully compensate for a possible reduction in US aid in the near future. At the same time, they are actively increasing the production of ammunition and artillery through companies like Rheinmetall (Germany) and KNDS. But the United States still remains the largest supplier of weapons to Ukraine, especially in the segment of high-tech artillery, such as HIMARS and M777, which is critical for Ukrainian defense and counteroffensive.

According to the data, more than half of Ukraine's military aid in missiles and artillery comes from the United States. European governments are currently facing difficulties in financing rising defense spending.

According to Bloomberg estimates, to fully cover the needs for modernization and strengthening the defense capability of NATO countries, the EU must increase defense spending by 3 340 billion annually. However, the idea of co-borrowing remains taboo for individual EU members, such as Germany. Europe also faces challenges in providing ammunition.

The promised million shells for Ukraine were provided only after eight months, and Russian production now exceeds the total efforts of the EU.

Is Ukraine ready to reduce support?

Ukraine is gradually increasing its own production of weapons, in particular drones. European companies such as Rheinmetall have already opened factories in Ukraine. However, the army is still heavily dependent on Western supplies, especially the United States.

Russia, despite the losses, continues to increase military spending, which in 2025 may reach 40% of the country's budget. At the same time, Russian production capacity is also limited, which could create a shortage of weapons until 2026.

What to expect from Europe?

Europe has the resources to build up military support for Ukraine. According to General Ben Hodges, even without the United States, Western economies significantly exceed Russia's capacity. However, the key issue remains political will. If the US reduces its role, Europe will have to join forces faster and develop strategies for mass production of weapons.

It is not yet known how the balance of power at the front will change, but one thing is clear: support for Ukraine remains critical for the security of the whole of Europe.

What can be the actions of Europe:

• Increase in own production of artillery shells, missiles and air defense systems; 
• Deepening cooperation within NATO and the EU to combine capabilities (this may include co-production of weapons, integration of defense systems, and improved intelligence sharing).
• Attracting new partners and resources. - strengthening economic support
• Creating alternative channels for the supply of weapons. - strengthening diplomatic efforts.

How does the US operate now?

President Joe Biden uses the timeto provide military assistance to Ukraine. Biden is currently preparing a пакет 725 million military aid package for Ukraine.

According to sources, the package will include a variety of weapons aimed at deterring the Russian offensive. Among the planned supplies: anti-tank weapons, mines, drones, Stinger missiles, ammunition for HIMARS systems, cluster munitions that can be used in GMLRS missiles.

The Biden administration also has 6 6.5 billion to transfer weapons to Ukraine,but may not have time to use them before the end of the term.