The first phase of Russia's spring-summer offensive failed - what's next?
Kyiv • UNN
Russian troops lost 900 personnel and 100 pieces of equipment during an attempted breakthrough in Donetsk region. The enemy is preparing new attacks on Kupyansk and Sloviansk.
Russian invaders attempted to break through the front in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia directions (Dobropillia, Pokrovsk, and Huliaipole sections), using fog as cover to launch their spring-summer offensive campaign. However, these offensive attempts resulted in heavy losses.
Russia has already begun its spring-summer offensive attempts, but the initial attacks suffered significant losses and yielded no results. Despite this, the enemy maintains its intention to advance simultaneously in several directions, employing new warfare tactics. This was stated in an interview with UNN by Andriy Kramarov, a reserve officer of the Ukrainian Air Force and military expert.
The first offensive has already happened - and it failed
According to the expert, Russian troops have already made their first attempt at a large-scale offensive, covering a significant section of the front. This refers not to preparation, but to actual combat operations that have already taken place.
They have already made an attempt at an offensive - this was the section from Pokrovsk to Huliaipole, approximately 100 kilometers of the front. There were several breakthrough points - small sections of 3-4 kilometers, where they tried to break into our operational-tactical rear
Despite the preparation, the offensive yielded no results.
In 24 hours, they lost about 900 people and over 100 units of equipment. These are very heavy losses even for such a wide section of the front. Fortunately, we managed to prepare well and repel these attacks
At the same time, the expert emphasizes that this does not mean that the offensive has been completely thwarted.
We have not completely thwarted the offensive. We have thwarted their plans. They could not prepare as well as before - we hit logistics, equipment, conducted sabotage raids. This disrupted their preparation
Where Russia will advance next
Despite the failure of the first wave, Russia continues to prepare attacks in several directions. According to the expert, the situation remains tense in several regions at once.
They are creating tension in Sumy region - not so much for a breakthrough, but to force us to withdraw 5-10 kilometers from the border
Activity is also observed in the east.
There is preparation in the Kupyansk direction. In the Lyman direction, there are already initial attempts at assaults - this is to enter Sloviansk from the northeast
Separately, he highlighted another direction.
Active attempts to move towards Kostiantynivka have begun. Before this, they were hitting logistics, and now they are trying to advance
What a modern offensive looks like - "small infantry" and drones
The expert explained that modern warfare differs fundamentally from the battles of 2022-2023. Tanks have not disappeared, but tactics have changed.
If anyone thinks that tanks will disappear - no, they will remain. Their role and approach to use will simply change
Instead, small groups have become a key element.
Now they are trying to infiltrate small groups - 2-4 people - into our rear for 5-20 kilometers. They sit there covertly and become active during an assault, shaking the defense from within
Systematic preparation takes place before the assault.
First, they knock out logistics, then artillery and aviation - KABs - work. And only after that do assault groups enter
"Light and heavy cavalry" - Russian tactics
Kramarov described the offensive model used by Russia. It consists of two waves.
First comes the so-called "light cavalry" - these are motorcycles, buggies. They break through quickly, and it is more difficult to react to them
After that, heavy equipment enters.
If the light wave was successful, then the "heavy cavalry" enters - armored vehicles that consolidate the result
409 thousand will not change the situation
Separately, Kramarov commented on Russia's plans to mobilize over 409,000 military personnel. According to him, this is not a radically new factor.
Last year, they mobilized approximately 25-30 thousand per month. This is about 360 thousand per year. That is, now they are increasing, but not critically
At the same time, the intensity of fighting is increasing.
If earlier there were 120-130 combat engagements per day, now it reaches 200+ - there was a day with 237. Accordingly, losses are also growing
He stressed that quantity does not equal quality.
They can recruit people, but making soldiers out of them is another matter. This is a burden on the system. You can drive in as many as you want, but you can't train them. Yes, they can drive in "meat." But the more they drive it in, the more we destroy it
Thus, Russia has already moved to an active phase of the offensive, but the first results show serious problems with preparation and losses.
Despite increased mobilization and changing tactics, the decisive factor remains Ukraine's ability to destroy enemy manpower and disrupt logistics, which already casts doubt on the effectiveness of Russia's new offensive campaign.