Russia's mobilization plans - why 409,000 new recruits do not pose a major threat
Kyiv • UNN
Commander-in-Chief Syrsky announced Russia's plans to recruit 409,000 people in 2026. Experts believe that this will not cover the record irreversible losses.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russia plans to recruit another 409,000 military personnel in 2026. Against this background, the Commander-in-Chief reported on an operational meeting held regarding the state of engineering equipment for defensive lines.
"In 2026, Russia plans to recruit another 409,000 military personnel. This means one thing – the enemy is not abandoning its intentions and continues to prepare for further aggression against Ukraine. With the improvement of weather conditions, we see an increase in enemy activity at the front," Syrskyi reported.
Russia tries to recruit over 400,000 military personnel every year, but current losses already exceed these figures, which casts doubt on its ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations. At the same time, the Kremlin may resort to a new wave of covert mobilization. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political observer for the "Information Resistance" group, stated this in an interview with UNN.
Recruiting 400,000 is already a standard, not a new strategy
According to the expert, Russia's stated plans to recruit over 400,000 military personnel are nothing new or extraordinary. This level of personnel replenishment has been observed for several years in a row.
He explains that this is rather an attempt to maintain a balance of losses, not preparation for a large-scale offensive.
This is a fairly standard indicator. Starting from 2023–2024, Russia recruits over 400,000 personnel annually. This is enough to compensate for losses during the year
At the same time, these figures do not take into account other sources of army replenishment.
These 400,000 are only about voluntary mobilization through contracts. They do not take into account the recruitment of mercenaries from other countries or possible changes in legislation
Russia is increasingly dependent on mercenaries
Foreign mercenaries, particularly from Africa and Asia, as well as military personnel from North Korea, are becoming a separate source of replenishment for the Russian army. According to Kovalenko, this trend will only intensify.
We see the active use of mercenaries – particularly from African countries, as well as North Korean military personnel, who partially compensate for losses, especially in border areas
In 2026, their share may significantly increase.
This figure could reach up to 10% of the total number. This is approximately 30,000 or more mercenaries
Unique situation - Russia loses more killed than wounded
The key problem for Russia is not only the number of losses, but their structure. According to the expert, currently most losses are irreversible.
This is an atypical situation even for large-scale wars.
Currently, 60–65% of Russian losses are "200s," meaning irreversible losses. Previously, this figure was at the level of 20–25%
He emphasizes that this is an unprecedented situation.
This is a unique case in the history of wars, when the number of killed exceeds the number of wounded. Usually it's the other way around - there are always more wounded
This means that Russia cannot compensate for losses by returning the wounded to service.
Even 400,000 will not cover the losses
At first glance, an annual recruitment of 400,000 may seem sufficient. However, the real situation is different. The high level of irreversible losses and the intensity of fighting change the balance.
At first glance, this looks like compensation for losses. But given the current structure of losses, these figures no longer work
He cited an example of massive losses during active hostilities.
In the first 48 hours of the active phase of the new offensive, which is currently underway, Russia lost over 4,000 military personnel. These are very high figures
If Ukraine reaches a stable level of destruction of the occupiers, the situation will become critical for the Russian Federation.
If losses amount to about 50,000 per month, and this is quite realistic, I remind you that Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov spoke about such plans, then no 400,000 per year will save them. They will go into the red and lose the ability to conduct an offensive and even effectively defend themselves
The Kremlin may resort to covert general mobilization
According to the expert, even without reaching critical losses, Russia is already approaching the need for new mobilization. However, this can be done in a hybrid form.
"They will be forced to announce general mobilization. But they will not call it that - it will be something like 'partial mobilization 2.0'," Kovalenko noted.
This refers to rapid replenishment without proper training.
They can mobilize 50–60 thousand people per month and immediately send them to the front without training
Russia may seek a "quick victory" even outside Ukraine
Due to the lack of significant success at the front, the Kremlin may try to change the situation through new escalation. In particular, the scenario of opening a new theater of operations is not excluded.
Russia needs a quick result for the domestic consumer. This could be an attempt at escalation, including even outside Ukraine
He suggests that it could be about the Baltic countries.
Theoretically, they could try a scenario with the Baltic countries to demonstrate a quick result and use it as a tool for blackmailing Europe
Why you shouldn't panic
The current pace of Russian mobilization no longer corresponds to the scale of its losses. Even with the recruitment of 400,000 military personnel annually, the Russian Federation risks losing its ability to conduct offensive operations.
The only option left for the Kremlin is a new wave of mobilization or an attempt at sharp escalation to achieve a quick political effect.