Bloomberg learned how long Ukraine might have enough funds to cover expenses amid aid slowdown
Kyiv • UNN
Kyiv will only have enough finances until June, according to estimates, due to Hungary's blocking of EU aid and delays from the IMF. The NBU may begin direct lending to the state budget.
Ukraine "risks running out of money to pay for defense against Russia within two months," as a multitude of factors converge, threatening tens of billions of euros in aid from the country's key donors, Bloomberg reports, writes UNN.
Kyiv currently has enough funds to cover expenses only until June,
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A series of recent setbacks, from Hungary's veto of a 90 billion euro EU loan to a dispute over the latest IMF aid package and an unstable NATO arms initiative, has significantly reduced Ukraine's room for maneuver, the publication writes.
NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy stated earlier this month that if international funds do not arrive, his institution may be forced to resume direct lending to the Ministry of Finance as a last resort. This money would go towards military and employee salaries, as well as funding essential services.
This situation unfolds as Russia increasingly profits from rising global oil prices caused by the war in Iran, the publication notes. This conflict also absorbs US military resources and President Donald Trump's attention, pushing diplomatic efforts to achieve a peace agreement in Ukraine to the background, the publication writes.
The US has virtually ceased direct aid to Ukraine since Trump's return to the White House last January, leaving Europe to foot the bill by paying for weapons and financial support to Ukraine.
A new infusion of EU funding was supposed to begin next month after the bloc's leaders agreed in December to provide a loan for this year and 2027.
But this schedule was disrupted after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said he would block the loan until Ukraine restores the transit of Russian oil through its territory via the Druzhba pipeline, which was damaged by a Russian strike.
The Ministry of Finance in Kyiv did not respond to a request for comment. On Wednesday, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said on Facebook that he expects payments from the EU "in the near future."
"The fate of the loan is likely to remain uncertain at least until Hungary's general election on April 12," the publication notes. Orbán, the EU's most Kremlin-friendly leader, faces the most serious challenge in his 16 years in power, as his Fidesz party significantly lags behind its main rival.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the Hungarian tactic blackmail.
In a Telegram post on Thursday, the President stated that his country hopes "for an alternative that will allow Ukraine to access these funds," otherwise "the army will face underfunding." He warned that a lack of funding would affect the production of various types of drones and the purchase of air defense systems, which are key to sustaining military efforts.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen assured Ukraine that the EU would fulfill its loan commitments "one way or another."
So far, there are no signs of this, the publication notes.
Orbán, the publication writes, has based his entire re-election campaign on criticizing Ukraine. Even if he is removed as Hungarian leader, his Slovak counterpart, Prime Minister Robert Fico, has warned that he would support a veto.
"This deadlock is likely to complicate negotiations on an additional 30 billion euros in funding for Ukraine, which the EU hoped to secure from other countries, including the Group of Seven, when finance ministers meet in Washington in April for the IMF meeting," the publication states.
Ukraine, the publication notes, is also struggling to meet its commitments under the latest $8.1 billion IMF loan program, approved last month, "amid escalating political confrontation between Zelenskyy and Ukraine's parliament." Lawmakers have yet to pass tax law amendments required by the IMF, which would pave the way for further disbursements after $1.5 billion was paid under the four-year program.
"While they have until the next scheduled review in June to implement reforms, time is running out," the publication writes. "Fund staff led by mission chief Gavin Gray met with Ukrainian lawmakers earlier this month to assess parliament's ability to approve the changes," Bloomberg sources previously reported.
"Ukraine's difficult situation is exacerbated by the reluctance of some NATO allies to provide new funding for the US arms procurement program known as PURL," the publication indicates. Ukraine's Ambassador to NATO, Alyona Getmanchuk, told Bloomberg that only a small number of countries are paying for the bulk of the equipment, and it is becoming difficult to constantly ask them for help.
Ukraine, it is noted, has estimated that it needs $15 billion this year to purchase US weapons.
In total, financial authorities estimate that Ukraine needs $52 billion in foreign aid in 2026.
"If the current financial crisis persists, Ukraine could face a 'financial tragedy' as early as April," Danylo Hetmantsev, head of the parliamentary finance committee, said in an interview last month.