“90 days or more": bookmakers accept bets on the likelihood of the end of Russia's war against Ukraine with Trump's arrival
Kyiv • UNN
The Polymarket platform accepts bets on Trump's ability to end the war in Ukraine within 90 days of winning the election. The probability of such a scenario is estimated by bookmakers in the range of 40-56%.
Despite Donald Trump's assurances that if he is elected president of the United States, he will end Russia's war in Ukraine in 24 hours, bookmakers' forecasts take into account much more time. At the same time, some Polymarket customers commented that this time period would be too short.
Written by UNN with reference to the decentralized forecasting platform.
Details
Bookmakers have begun accepting bets on whether Donald Trump will be able to end Russia's war in Ukraine as head of the White House - not in 24 hours, as the US Republican candidate had promised, but in 90 days. Although Trump has not yet officially become president of the United States, a popular prediction service has already announced the conditions:
Ukraine and Russia officially announce at least a temporary truce, a ceasefire along the entire front line, or a negotiated settlement of the conflict. This should happen at any time between the Associated Press declaring Donald Trump the winner of the election and 11:59 p.m. on April 19, 2025, Eastern Time.
There are various assumptions in the comments to the proposal:
- Even if he is elected, it will take him more than 90 days,” writes one user.
IF he wins, he will most likely focus on pardoning himself first
- Even a temporary ceasefire is counted as such. The name is misleading, others say.
This confirms that there is no clear idea even of the likely scenario. Therefore, the rates range from 40% to 56%.
Recall
During a speech in Florida, Donald Trump declared his victory and made a number of high-profile statements. He promised to stop wars, close the borders, cut taxes, and make the military stronger.
Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled to deliver a speech on Wednesday at Howard University. She is expected to officially recognize Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election.
