European countries are considering joint offensive cyber operations and surprise military exercises, as Moscow intensifies its campaign to destabilize NATO allies, Politico reports, writes UNN.
Russian drones and agents are unleashing attacks on NATO countries, and Europe is now doing what would have seemed strange a few years ago: planning how to strike back.
According to two senior European government officials and three EU diplomats, "ideas range from joint offensive cyber operations against Russia and faster and more coordinated attribution of hybrid attacks by quickly pointing the finger at Moscow, to surprise NATO-led military exercises."
"The Russians are constantly testing the limits - what is the response, how far can we go?" Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said in an interview. "A more proactive response is needed. And the signal is sent not by words, but by actions."
"Overall, Europe and the alliance must ask themselves how long we are willing to tolerate this type of hybrid warfare... [and] whether we should consider becoming more actively involved in this area ourselves," German State Secretary for Defense Florian Hahn told Welt TV last week.
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As the publication notes, "hybrid attacks are nothing new." It adds: "But the scale and frequency of current attacks are unprecedented." Globsec, a Prague-based think tank, estimates that between January and July, more than 110 acts of sabotage and attempted attacks by individuals linked to Moscow were carried out in Europe, mainly in Poland and France.
"Today's world offers a much more open - one might even say creative - space for foreign policy," Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin said at an October conference in Valdai, adding: "We are closely monitoring the growing militarization of Europe. Is this just rhetoric, or is it time for us to respond?"
"Russia may view the EU and NATO as rivals or even enemies - former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Kremlin's security council Dmitry Medvedev said last month: 'The US is our adversary.' However, Europe does not want a war with nuclear Russia, so it must figure out how to respond in a way that deters Moscow but does not cross any Kremlin red lines that could lead to open war," the publication states.
That doesn't mean flinching, according to Swedish defense chief General Micael Bydén. "We cannot afford to be afraid and too wary of escalation," he said in an interview. "We need to show firmness."
So far, the response has been to strengthen defenses, the publication notes. After Russian military drones were shot down over Poland, NATO said it would strengthen the alliance's drones and air defenses on its eastern flank - a call echoed by the EU.
As the publication points out, frequent Russian provocations are changing the tone in European capitals.
But, "despite increasingly fierce rhetoric, the question of what a more decisive response means remains open."
"This is partly due to the difference between Moscow and Brussels - the latter is more constrained, operating within the rules," according to Kevin Limonier, professor and deputy director of the Paris-based think tank GEODE.
"This raises an ethical and philosophical question: can states governed by the rule of law afford to use the same tools... and the same strategies as the Russians?" he asked.
For now, countries like Germany and Romania are changing rules that will allow authorities to shoot down drones flying over airports and militarily sensitive sites.
Meanwhile, national security services, the publication writes, can operate in a legal "gray area." Allies from Denmark to the Czech Republic already allow offensive cyber operations. In 2017, the UK reportedly hacked ISIS networks to gain information about the terrorist group's early-stage drone development program.
Allies must "act more proactively in cyber offense," Braže believes, and focus on "increasing situational awareness - combining and coordinating security and intelligence services."
"In practice, countries can use cyber methods to attack systems critical to Russia's military efforts, such as the Yelabuga economic zone in Tatarstan in east-central Russia, where Moscow produces Shahed drones, as well as energy facilities or trains carrying weapons," said Filip Bryjka, a political scientist and expert on hybrid threats at the Polish Academy of Sciences. "We can attack the system and disrupt its functioning," he said.
Europe must also figure out how to respond to Russia's large-scale disinformation campaigns with its own efforts at home, the publication writes.
"Russian public opinion... is somewhat inaccessible," said one senior military official. "We need to work with allies who have a fairly detailed understanding of Russian thinking - this means that cooperation must also be established in the field of information warfare."
However, any new measures "must have plausible deniability," one EU diplomat said.
At the same time, the publication notes that NATO, for its part, is a defensive organization, and therefore it is suspicious of offensive operations. "Asymmetric responses are an important part of the conversation," said one NATO diplomat, but "we are not going to stoop to the same tactics as Russia."
Instead, the alliance should prioritize demonstrations of force that illustrate strength and unity, said Oana Lungescu, former NATO spokeswoman and fellow at the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute. In practice, this means quickly announcing whether Moscow is behind a hybrid attack and conducting "no-notice" military exercises on the Russian border with Lithuania or Estonia, the publication points out.
Meanwhile, the Centre of Excellence on Hybrid Threats in Helsinki, supported by NATO and bringing together allied officials, also "provides expertise and training" and develops "policies to counter these threats," said Marten ten Wolde, a senior analyst at the organization.
"Undoubtedly, more work needs to be done on hybrid attacks," said one senior NATO diplomat, including increasing collective attribution after attacks and ensuring that "by various means we demonstrate that we are paying attention and can flexibly reallocate resources."
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