More next year, then less: NBU forecasts aid from partners and the deficit

Ukraine expects increased support from its partners in 2027 compared with this year, but a reduction in its volume in 2028. The budget deficit will rise to 37% of GDP in 2027 and decline thereafter. This is stated in the NBU’s October 2026 inflation report, UNN writes. 

Details

The NBU noted that "the volume of international financial assistance in the third quarter was lower than expected, primarily due to delays in Ukraine’s implementation of reforms." At the same time, in October, Parliament adopted a number of laws to unblock funding from the EU and the IMF. Further catching up in the pace of fulfilling commitments under support programs is expected, which will reduce uncertainty regarding sources of budget financing.

International assistance will remain the key source of financing for the budget deficit. Ukraine is expected to receive about USD 50 billion in direct budget financing in 2026, and more than USD 52 billion and USD 44 billion in 2027–2028, respectively 

In addition, the National Bank noted that "the receipt of funds under the defense component of the Ukraine Support Loan program is assumed: more than USD 32 billion this year and USD 37 billion next year."

The NBU expects that "the volume of international assistance will be sufficient to finance the budget deficit without monetary emission and to build up international reserves."

Budget deficit

The NBU forecast envisages an increase in the budget deficit (excluding grants from revenues) to about 35% of GDP in 2026 and about 37% in 2027. It is subsequently expected to gradually decline to 20% of GDP in 2028

International reserves

"Thanks to international support, international reserves will exceed USD 62 billion at the end of 2026 and 2027, while in 2028 they will amount to about USD 57 billion," the NBU forecast says.

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