Modification of Russian ballistic missiles: how Ukraine can cope with the new challenge
Kyiv • UNN
Russia has improved Iskander-M missiles, making them more difficult for Patriot to intercept. An expert says that only Patriot can save from them, but analogues are needed.
A series of regular missile strikes and drone attacks that Russia has carried out against Ukraine in recent weeks have shown that the Russian invaders are seriously working to improve their technical capabilities to kill Ukrainians and destroy their homes. In particular, the Iskander-M missiles, which the aggressor state has been actively using since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, have undergone serious modifications. Aviation expert and analyst Kostyantyn Kryvolap explained to UNN journalist what the updated enemy missiles are dangerous and how Ukraine could counter them.
Modernization of Russian ballistic missiles
The Russians are improving the Iskanders. The head of the communications department of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ignat, said that it has become more difficult for Patriot systems to intercept advanced Russian Iskander-M missiles, as they have acquired the ability to shoot radar traps.
The Iskander-M missiles that attack along a ballistic trajectory have been improved and modernized. We are talking about shooting radar traps, which each missile can shoot when approaching the target. Accordingly, the Patriot systems, which have to intercept the target, may not work as effectively as we would like
Ignat also added that the Russian invaders have improved ballistic missiles in such a way that they can change their flight path.
"There is a flight of a ballistic missile along such a quasi-ballistic trajectory, as if it is falling, and it is maneuvering. Then it is more difficult for the Patriot system to predict the point where the missile will fall," Ignat said.
The military also added that the modernization carried out by the Russians complicates the work of air defense, but does not make it impossible.
"This complicates, but does not make impossible the work of air defense. I think our partners are working to find a solution to improve the Patriot system," Ignat summed up.
For reference
Ballistic missiles have supersonic speed and fly along a steep trajectory, which makes them difficult to detect and intercept. Specialized systems, including Patriot or SAMP/T, are needed to combat such targets, and their number in Ukraine is limited.
The impact of changes in Russian ballistics on the effectiveness of Patriot systems
Maneuvering in the terminal section - the missile flies down and starts maneuvering there with acceleration up to 30 gallons. The anti-missile must have time with such maneuvers, so its acceleration is 50 gallons. There is such a moment that when the anti-missile starts, it first flies controlled by the locator of the launching station. And when it approaches the missile that it will shoot down, it switches to its homing system and automatically aims at it itself
Kryvolap noted that it is at the moment of this switching that the missile can slip through, going beyond the target acquisition range of the anti-missile.
"And at the moment when this switching of the locator itself takes place, the enemy missile can slip through. If at this moment the missile made a maneuver with an acceleration of 30 gallons, it can jump out of the target acquisition field of the anti-missile. There is such a problem," the expert explained.
According to Kostyantyn Kryvolap, the Russians, based on this, have strengthened the capabilities of their missiles by installing additional accelerators. "Judging by this, the Russians have strengthened their capabilities, modified them. They simply installed additional accelerators that allow it to move," the expert explained.
Kryvolap also stressed that the use of radar jamming by the Russians is not too great a danger. Modern air defense systems, in particular Patriot, are able to identify the main targets and not be "led" by traps.
As for the fact that radar jamming is thrown out there, it is a bit of an exaggeration. The signature of each missile in Patriot or any other modern anti-aircraft missile system. A signature is like an individual signature, like a seal. They all exist. And if something is suddenly rejected with a different signature, then the anti-missile system does not care about it
Ukrainian initiatives to create a domestic analogue of the Patriot system
"We had developments that could be an analogue of the Patriot system. This is the Kilchen complex, which was developed at Pivdenmash. This is the Coral anti-aircraft missile, which was developed at the Luch design bureau. Such developments existed, but they were at the level of an idea and did not even reach the level of prototypes. Maybe they raised them, shook off the dust, cleaned them and started working on these missiles," the analyst said.
Kryvolap also added that the development of an anti-missile capable of shooting down air targets at a speed of four to five times the speed of sound takes 10-15 years. He stressed that today only the Patriot system can save Ukraine from enemy Iskanders.
"Currently, our main hope in the fight against ballistics is the Patriot SAM system," the analyst summed up.
How many missiles does Russia have
The Economist writes that the Russian arsenal may contain up to 500 ballistic missiles, including the Iskander and Kinzhal types. They are very difficult to shoot down at medium or low altitudes. Ukrainian air defense forces have limited resources, and such a load could lead to breaches in defense, the publication writes.
"We are seeing a gradual depletion of the Ukrainian air defense system. If mass attacks are repeated, it is only a matter of time before its effectiveness decreases," the analyst quoted by the publication notes.