Electric car market to grow more than 20% this year - Bloomberg

The electric car market is expected to grow 21% this year, according to Bloomberg, writes UNN.

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BloombergNEF forecasts that global sales of electric passenger vehicles - battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids - will grow 21% in 2024 to 16.7 million, with 70% of them all-electric.

Electric vehicle sales in Chinaare reportedly expected to reach just under 10 million, accounting for nearly six out of every ten electric vehicles sold globally. However, growth in China is slowing due to market saturation in wealthier regions and tougher economic conditions in general.

The share of electric vehicles in global car sales should be around 20% (pure electric: 14%), up from around 17% in 2023. Bloomberg expects the share of electric vehicles to reach 38% of sales in China.

Sales in Europe are expected to be relatively stable this year as automakers there refrain from increasing volumes before CO2 regulations tighten again in 2025. Subsidies have also been cut in some important regions, and the European market is increasingly dependent on preferential tax programs for electric vehicles. Sales of electric cars in Europe should total about 3.4 million this year, up 8%, the publication says.

The U.S. market is the hardest to signify, the publication notes. Ford and General Motors have been among the loudest voices that demand for electric cars is falling, but Tesla continues to score wins, and other automakers like Hyundai and Kia are keeping the momentum going.

So it's predicted that electric vehicle sales in the U.S. should be just under 1.9 million, accounting for 13% of new car purchases, but there could be some surprises this year as political polarization intensifies. "What happens in the US will largely determine the coverage and headlines about electric vehicles in 2024, but it is far from the most important market, accounting for only about 11% of global electric vehicle sales. It's best not to overestimate what's happening there," the article says.

This year, as indicated, it will be interesting to watch emerging economies. Places like India, Thailand and Indonesia are seeing a surge in electric vehicle sales in 2023. Bloomberg expects electric car sales in the "rest of the world" category to reach 840,000, dispelling any misconception that electric cars are a phenomenon only for rich countries. BYD plans to open a plant in Brazil later in 2024 after Ford left the country in 2021.

Commercial electric vehicle sales are also expected to have another breakout year. After surpassing 500,000 in 2023, Bloomberg expects deliveries to double to 1 million in 2024. 

The slowdown in global electric vehicle sales - from 33% in 2023 to 21% in 2024 - is a concern for those making major investments, but battery technology continues to improve, costs continue to fall, and there are now 4 million electric vehicles. Charging points have been installed all over the world. All of these trends will continue this year, paving the way for further growth in 2025 and 2026, when many cheaper models will appear in Western markets, the publication notes.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the battle for leadership in electric car sales will be fought between the two companies for at least the next few years, with Tesla and BYD well ahead of Volkswagen. Although Tesla lagged behind BYD in battery electric vehicle sales in the fourth quarter, BI expects the U.S. company to remain ahead year-over-year for the rest of the decade.

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