Elections in Poland: what is known about the favorites and what to expect for Ukraine
Kyiv • UNN
In Poland, Rafał Trzaskowski won the first round of the presidential elections, but the second round with Karol Nawrocki will determine the future of the country and relations with Ukraine.
In Poland, after counting more than 99% of the votes in the first round of the presidential election, the representative of the ruling "Civic Platform", the mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Tszaskowski, wins with 31.2% of the votes. However, he is closely followed by the candidate from the Law and Justice party, Karol Nawrocki, with a result of 29.7%, so there will be a second round.
What is known about the main favorites of the pre-election race in Poland and what Ukraine should expect from these elections was выяснял УНН.
Rafal Tszaskowski is a liberal leader in a conservative country
According to Politico, the 52-year-old mayor of Warsaw is considered by many to be a model of the urban, cosmopolitan, fast-growing parts of the country, often referred to as "Poland A".
The son of a dissident jazz composer, Tszaskowski was partly educated in Australia and the United States and quickly demonstrated his linguistic abilities, easily mastering English, Spanish, Russian and Italian.
After studying at the College of Europe in the Natolin district of Warsaw, he entered Oxford, where he wrote a doctoral dissertation on the institutional reform of the European Union.
Tszaskowski began his political career in Brussels, working as an advisor in the European Parliament before being elected as a Member of the European Parliament himself.
He returned home in 2013 to take up the post of minister and national legislator before easily taking up the post of mayor of Warsaw.
As the mayor of the Polish capital, he implemented a number of measures that caused a mixed reaction in society. In particular, crosses were removed from municipal buildings, support for the LGBT community was strengthened, and the country's first low-emission zone was created.
In 2020, he lost the presidential election. Now he has every chance to achieve his goal.
Tszaskowski's victory in the presidential election could lead to significant changes in the country, because in this case, the two main positions will be held by representatives of the liberal "Civic Platform" (we remind you that the Prime Minister of the country is a representative of the same party, Donald Tusk).
From such a coalition, one should expect a softening of the country's laws against abortions and the legalization of civil partnerships for the LGBT community.
As for foreign policy, it is worth expecting more decisive actions to get closer to the European Union, especially against the background of the controversial policy of the United States.
Tszaskowski, as a former Secretary of State for European Affairs, has excellent connections in Brussels.
Conservative Karol Nawrocki
According to the Polish publication Wydarjenia, the 42-year-old Nawrocki is a prominent representative of the right wing and the absolute opposite of Tszaskowski in matters of domestic policy.
In 2009–2017, Nawrocki worked at the Institute of National Remembrance, and from 2013 to 2017 he headed its Bureau of Public Education in Gdansk.
From 2011 to 2017, he also held the position of chairman of the Siedlce district council in the same Gdansk.
In 2017, he was appointed director of the Museum of the Second World War in Gdansk and worked in this position until 2021. Then he returned to the Institute of National Remembrance, becoming its vice president in June 2021. In July of the same year, he took over as the new head of the IPN after being elected by the Sejm and approved by the Polish Senate.
Nawrocki adheres to more traditional views on the country's domestic policy. If he wins the presidential election, he will continue the policy of his predecessor Andrzej Duda. In particular, this concerns the preservation of strict restrictions on abortions.
Also, representatives of the LGBT community should not expect any changes in the state policy regarding their rights. In addition, Nawrocki is determined to strengthen the fight against migrants.
Regarding foreign policy, according to Wydarjenia, Nawrocki positions himself as someone who can conduct a constructive dialogue with American leader Donald Trump, who has already received him at the White House. This may strengthen the position of Eurosceptics in Polish politics.
Rafal Tszaskowski and Karol Nawrocki – what to expect Ukraine
The Economist writes that both presidential candidates agree on the need to invest in defense. As of today, Poland has promised to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, which is the highest level in NATO. Whoever wins, this course will most likely be maintained.
Tszaskowski and Nawrocki strongly support Ukraine in its struggle against the aggressor state - Russia. In particular, Tszaskowski expressed strong support for Ukraine's accession to NATO and the European Union.
There is no doubt that Ukraine's membership in NATO and the European Union is in Poland's interests, strengthening our security
Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, Rafal Tszaskowski, as the mayor of Warsaw, has been actively organizing humanitarian aid for Ukrainian cities and supporting Ukrainian refugees.
However, there are also alarming bells from Tszaskowski. During the pre-election debates in May 2025, he made a scandalous statement that caused a wave of outrage in Ukraine, namely that our state should allegedly receive the status of a "buffer zone" between Russia and the West.
Since I worked in the EU, in the European Parliament, I clearly stated that Russia is a threat, and Ukraine should be a buffer zone
Also, Tszaskowski has a rather restrained position regarding Poland's direct military participation in the war, emphasizing the need to protect NATO's eastern border. At the same time, he did not rule out that the victory of Ukraine is primarily important for Poland.
I don't think that sending Polish troops to Ukraine is a good idea, and this should be considered. First of all, we must end the war. And I hope that it will end in a way that will be beneficial for Ukraine – this is the most important thing
As for Nawrocki, although his position is considered pro-Ukrainian, it also has several features that are not in favor of our state. In particular, he has repeatedly emphasized the importance of honoring the memory of Polish victims of the events in Volyn, which, in his opinion, is key to Polish-Ukrainian relations. Without a final point in this matter, he does not see opportunities for further European integration of our state.
Today I do not see Ukraine in any structure – neither in the European Union, nor in NATO – until such important civilizational issues for Poles are resolved
Thus, Nawrocki opposes Ukraine's membership in NATO and the European Union until our state recognizes the events in Volyn in 1943 as the alleged genocide of Poles.
This statement by Nawrocki caused a critical reaction from the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said that if Ukraine is not in the EU and NATO, then Nawrocki will have to "defend his country from Russia with weapons in his hands."
Regarding the Russian war against Ukraine, Nawrocki supports its end with a peace agreement. At the same time, he emphasized that the issue of territorial concessions on the part of our state should be resolved with the participation of European partners and Ukraine itself.
Also, both Tszaskowski and Nawrocki believe that it is necessary to start curtailing some points of assistance to Ukrainian refugees. They will be encouraged to either integrate more actively into Polish society or return home.
What will the second round be like
Despite the victory in the first round, Rafal Tszaskowski's position is quite shaky.
Nawrocki may be supported by voters of the ultra-right Sławomir Mentzen, who received 14.5% of the votes, and a number of other conservative social circles. This, in turn, will lead to Nawrocki having to maneuver in his foreign policy, including with regard to Ukraine.
It remains to wait for the results of the second round of elections. It is scheduled for June 1.
