Dollar at 50 - a pessimistic scenario or the nearest prospect
Kyiv • UNN
Chief Consultant of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Ivan Us believes that the average exchange rate of 45.7 UAH/USD, set in the budget, is overestimated. According to his forecast, the rate will be around 44.6-44.7 UAH, and the crisis scenario is 48-50 UAH.
The rise in oil prices due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East has once again brought the issue of the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine to the forefront. For more details on what to expect from the foreign exchange market in the fall and what factors will determine the hryvnia exchange rate, Ivan Us, chief consultant at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, told UNN exclusively.
Details
According to the expert, the state budget for 2026 includes an average exchange rate of 45.7 hryvnias per dollar. At the same time, Ivan Us believes that this figure may turn out to be overestimated. In his opinion, the main risk for the hryvnia remains the deterioration of Ukraine's trade balance.
Ukraine's budget for this year includes a figure - the average hryvnia to dollar exchange rate for 2026 is 45 hryvnias 70 kopecks per dollar. We are now already in the second half of the year and this exchange rate has never occurred. In the first half of 2026, the negative balance of foreign trade amounted to 28 billion US dollars, while for the same period last year it was 18 billion, which has a negative impact on the national currency
The expert notes that the import of energy resources plays a significant role in this process. In particular, Ukraine purchases significant volumes of fuel and energy goods abroad, and their rise in price automatically increases the state's foreign exchange expenditures, and that is why global oil prices directly affect the hryvnia exchange rate.
If we talk about fuel and energy goods, in the first half of 2025 Ukraine paid a little less than 5 billion dollars for them. In the first half of 2026, this amount amounted to almost 7.5 billion dollars. The increase was more than 50 percent - this already puts tremendous pressure on our currency and will continue to affect it in the future
Despite the risks, Ivan Us does not consider the situation critical, because, in his words, the Ukrainian economy continues to receive significant international support, which helps maintain financial stability. Long-term loans and grants from international partners also remain an important factor.
We are not falling into the abyss precisely because we have the support of our partners. This includes both grants and loans for very long terms and on preferential terms. Such instruments help sustain the economy in the conditions of a full-scale war. So far, this support appears to be quite effective
Separately, the economist commented on the prospects of the Ukrainian fuel market. He noted that the country is a large importer of petroleum products, so changes in the global market are quickly reflected in domestic prices. However, this could result in additional inflationary pressure.
The higher oil prices are, the more we pay for imports. The more we pay, the more inflation accelerates. For Ukraine, this is a very sensitive factor because fuel and energy goods occupy one of the largest shares in imports. Accordingly, the rise in oil prices can have consequences not only for drivers but also for the economy as a whole
Among the sectors that may first feel the consequences of expensive fuel, the expert names the agricultural sector and industry. According to him, the increase in fuel costs reduces the profitability of enterprises and affects the cost of production, and this can also affect prices for consumers.
If fuel becomes more expensive, it affects agriculture, logistics, and industry, because, for example, harvesting requires machinery and fuel. If costs rise, production margins decrease. Ultimately, this creates additional pressure on the economy and prices
Speaking about the prospects of the dollar exchange rate by the end of the year, Ivan Us outlined the baseline and crisis scenarios. He believes that a gradual weakening of the hryvnia is likely, but a sharp collapse is not expected at the moment. However, in his opinion, much will depend on the foreign economic situation and the development of events on global markets.
The baseline scenario involves a gradual weakening of the hryvnia. I believe that the average exchange rate at the end of the year will be lower than 45.7 hryvnias per dollar and may be in the range of 44.6-44.7 hryvnias. A crisis scenario would be if the dollar exchange rate approaches the 48-50 hryvnia mark. I am not currently considering the option of over 50 hryvnias per dollar at all