COP29 experts: Why the 1.5°C temperature reduction target has become unattainable
Kyiv • UNN
Three leading research groups predict a 1.5°C rise in global temperatures in 2024. Experts recognize the impossibility of achieving the climate goal due to prolonged inaction.
Three of the five leading research groups that monitor global temperatures believe that 2024 will be at least 1.5C (2.7F) hotter. This is because the internationally agreed goal of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5C has been "deader than a nail in the door" for some time.
Writes UNN with reference to The Guardian.
2024 will once again be the hottest year on record, with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.
The goal of avoiding exceeding 1.5C is dead on. It is almost impossible to avoid it now because we have waited too long to act
Moreover, the expert noted that "we are crossing the 1.5°C threshold at an accelerated pace, and this will continue until global emissions stop rising." The conclusions were confirmed by three of the five leading research groups that monitor global temperatures.
At the same time, diplomats and experts at COP29 keep talking about 1.5°C.
Obviously, 1.5°C is getting harder and harder. Regardless of how difficult it is, I don't want to give up on this goal, knowing full well what harm lies on the other side of that 1.5°C
However, the 1.5°C goal now seems more rhetorical than scientifically achievable, unless we take into account the huge amounts of carbon sequestration in the future with the help of yet untested technologies, the Guardian writes.
"I never thought that 1.5C was a conceivable goal. I thought it was a ridiculous thing. I'm not surprised at all, like almost all climate scientists, that we're slipping past it at this rate," said Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at NASA.
The big problem, climate and policy experts say, is that no one knows what target to adopt next. Should it be 1.6°C, or 1.7°C, or even more? What is realistic but also motivating? Should the new target be a different target temperature or something else?
"If we can't reach 1.5C, it's better to get 1.6C than 1.7C, which would be better than getting 2C or more," experts say.
"In any case, we are not going to have a good result. It is difficult. But every tenth of a degree matters," added Hausfather.
Augmentation
All countries must submit their new climate targets by February. To keep global climate goals ‘alive,’ ‘every country must submit economy-wide National Climate Action Plans (NDCs) that meet the degree limit,’ UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a speech to SOR29. ‘The G20, as the largest source of emissions, should lead the phase-out of fossil fuels.
Recall
Earlier, UNN reported that climate change has made it possible to grow new crops in regions of Ukrainewhere they were not previously grown, creating opportunities for the development of the agricultural sector. This was stated by Taras Vysotsky, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, at the conference "Climate Change: Challenges for Agricultural Education and Science".
