Banks are ready to lend more: what will happen to loans for businesses and individuals in 2026

Ukrainian banks are entering 2026 with a clear pro-credit stance: most players plan to increase business financing, and sentiment regarding lending to the population is the most optimistic since the beginning of 2021. Such signals are provided by a survey on banking lending conditions for Q4 2025, reported by UNN with reference to the NBU.

Details

In parallel, banks are recording an increase in credit risk and are preparing for an intensification of liquidity risk. This means that the expansion of lending will not happen blindly, but with meticulous attention to the borrower and the stability of the resource base.

Optimism regarding business lending is dominant

More than three-quarters of banks plan to increase lending to the corporate sector. For the economy, this is an important indicator: when banks are ready to lend more actively to companies, it usually means that they see a relatively acceptable balance between profitability, risks, and capital availability. An additional marker is that demand for business loans grew in Q4 and throughout 2025. For Q1 2026, banks expect further growth in demand for all types of corporate loans.

Household loans: demand is growing, but risks will be read more carefully

Demand for loans among the population also increased, particularly for consumer loans – and this trend, according to banks, has been ongoing since Q2 2023. For the first three months of 2026, expectations are positive for both mortgages and consumer lending.

At the same time, banks are factoring in a scenario: the quality of corporate loans is likely to remain unchanged over the next year, but the quality of the household portfolio may slightly deteriorate. This is a kind of warning that a massive increase in retail lending may be accompanied by a larger share of problem cases if household incomes and their solvency do not keep pace with credit expansion.

Debt burden: business - medium, population - low 

The assessment of the debt burden of enterprises as medium and households as low is an argument in favor of the fact that there is still room for credit growth.

For banks, this means a lower risk of over-crediting the system here and now. For the economy, it means the potential to support consumption and investment activity through the credit channel.

Credit standards are easing

Banks directly point to two reasons for easing credit standards for businesses: competition among banks and sufficient capitalization. In Q1 2026, they plan to continue easing corporate standards. Practically, this means that it is easier for banks to "fit into" deals (conditions may become more loyal), and for companies, it is easier to pass credit committees if the risk profile is acceptable.

In retail, the picture is similar: standards have eased for both mortgages and consumer loans. Moreover, for consumer loans, the easing has been ongoing for three consecutive years.

For Q1, expectations are as follows: for consumer loans, the easing will continue, and mortgage standards will not change. This looks like a pragmatic prioritization: the consumer segment is more "turnover-driven" and marginal, while mortgages have a longer horizon and are more sensitive to risks.

Application approvals: banks say "yes" more often, but not everywhere 

The approval rate for business loans increased for three consecutive quarters for all types of business loans, except for foreign currency loans. This is an important detail: despite overall optimism, foreign currency loans remain an area of greater caution.

For households, the approval of consumer loans increased, while mortgage approvals remained unchanged. This means that banks are more willing to issue shorter and more standardized products, but maintain a more stable bar in housing lending.

Risks: the main stop factor is not demand, but the price of risk and resources

In Q4 2025, as throughout the year, credit risk increased the most. And for Q1 2026, banks expect an intensification primarily of liquidity risk and credit risk. For the market, this is a key signal: even if demand continues to grow, the ultimate speed of lending will depend on how comfortable banks are with funding (liquidity) and the forecast of losses (credit risk). In simple terms: money will be given, but cheap and easy loans may not be enough for everyone.

How this may affect the economy in 2026

Banking experts note that, in aggregate, the survey results paint a scenario of a moderately positive credit cycle: banks are ready to lend, demand exists and, according to expectations, will grow. 

The most active segment may remain consumer lending (as standards continue to ease), while mortgages appear more stable and restrained.

For businesses, the window of opportunity is open, but the quality of financial reporting, transparency of cash flows, and the ability to withstand periods of more expensive resources will become especially important.

Additionally

The survey was conducted from December 12, 2025, to January 9, 2026, among bank credit managers. Responses were provided by 26 financial institutions, covering 96% of the banking system's assets. The results reflect the opinions of the respondents and are not assessments or forecasts of the National Bank. The survey on expectations for Q2 is planned to be published in April.

Recall

In November 2025, Ukrainian banks issued 743 mortgage loans totaling UAH 1.5 billion. The largest share fell on the primary market, and Kyiv and Lviv regions became the leaders.