A strike at the "heart of Putinism" – will Ukraine attack Moscow on May 9?
Kyiv • UNN
In Moscow, a drone hit a building on Mosfilmovskaya Street. An expert considers strikes on air defense systems in the Moscow region more likely than attacks on Red Square during the parade.
On the night of May 4, in Moscow, a drone hit a residential building on Mosfilmovskaya Street. Mayor Sobyanin reported no casualties at the scene.
Moscow is preparing to hold a May 9 parade on Red Square, but tension and discussion are growing around this event. In the information space, suggestions are increasingly being made, including from the Ukrainian side, about the possibility of strikes on the Russian capital on this day. Such a scenario, if implemented, could become a serious reputational blow for the Kremlin and Putin personally.
Ukraine is not interested in a direct strike on Red Square on May 9, but it may use this day for attacks on military targets in the Moscow region. Such a scenario has not only a military but also a powerful psychological effect. Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko told UNN about this in an interview.
Strike on Red Square – risks and international consequences
The idea of an attack directly on the parade in Moscow looks loud, but in practice, it carries too many risks. This concerns not only the military component but also the political consequences that could hit Ukraine.
The expert explains that not only military personnel but also civilians and foreign guests will be on Red Square. This is precisely what makes such a scenario unacceptable.
Ukraine has every moral and legal right to strike Russian territory. But a strike on Red Square is a completely different story. There will be a large number of civilians, as well as foreign leaders. Since 2022, we have been trying to minimize civilian casualties. In such a case, the risks are too high, and it could cause an international scandal that we absolutely do not need
He adds that even a hypothetical attempt to eliminate Putin in such a format creates unacceptable collateral risks.
Other leaders will be next to him. This means that any strike could have consequences not only for Russia. And the question is – why does Ukraine need such complications in the international arena
Alternative – strikes on the Moscow region
At the same time, the absence of a strike on the square itself does not mean a complete refusal of active operations. On the contrary – Ukraine can use May 9 for demonstrative and precision attacks on military infrastructure.
This primarily concerns air defense systems concentrated around Moscow.
We may not hit Red Square, but that doesn't stop us from working on the Moscow region. A large number of air defense systems are concentrated there – S-300, S-400, "Buk", "Tor", "Pantsir". And these systems are absolutely legitimate military targets
According to him, such a scenario allows for combining military effectiveness with an informational effect.
It could look like "musical accompaniment" to the parade – air raid sirens, explosions somewhere nearby. But this is not just a demonstration. Each drone will perform a specific task and work on a specific target. This is a full-fledged military operation
Psychological effect – a blow to the Kremlin's reputation
In addition to the military component, such actions have a powerful psychological and informational effect. Especially in the context of how Russia tries to use May 9 as a symbol of "control" and "victory." The expert emphasizes that even indirect strikes can seriously damage the image of the Russian leadership.
This is a serious reputational blow. If sirens sound during their main parade in the country or air defense is working somewhere nearby – it looks like a failure. This is a signal for both the internal and external audience
He also draws attention to the context of the so-called "truces" declared by Russia.
Russia regularly declares some kind of "truces," but in practice, they do not work. And Ukraine is not obliged to adapt to these statements. We can act as we see fit. And May 9 is precisely an opportunity to show that the initiative does not belong to Moscow
A war of decisions, not dates
In conclusion, according to Kovalenko, the key issue is not the date, but the expediency and effectiveness of actions.
Ukraine has no need for symbolic strikes that carry more risks than benefits. Instead, it can act rationally – striking real military targets and simultaneously creating pressure on the enemy.
This is not about a "picture" for the sake of a picture. This is about military tasks that have a concrete result. And at the same time – about demonstrating that the situation is controlled by Ukraine, not Russia