A large asteroid may collide with Earth in 2032: scientists estimate the level of danger

The International Astronomical Union has warned of the approach of asteroid 2024 YR4 to Earth. Calculations show that the probability of a collision between this object and the Earth is 1.2%. This is reported by Universe Space Tech, according to UNN. 

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected by the ATLAS early warning system back in December 2024. It was spotted by telescopes in Hawaii, Chile, and South Africa.

Scientists noted that the possibility of a collision remains at level 3 on the Torino scale, which indicates the degree of danger of celestial bodies to our planet. It is currently the only asteroid with an index above zero.

It should be noted right away that the trajectory of a celestial body can change due to an insufficiently long period of observation. Scientists cited an example when the asteroid Apophis received 4 points on the Turin scale, and the probability of its fall to Earth was estimated at 2.7%. But further observations showed that it does not threaten our planet in the foreseeable future.

Also, astronomers do not yet know the exact size of 2024 YR4. Current estimates range from 40 to 100 meters. NASA puts the figure at 55 meters. The fall of an object of this size would release energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT equivalent. This is comparable to the Tunguska meteorite, whose explosion caused widespread destruction in 1908 over an area of more than 2,000 square kilometers in Siberia.

If the asteroid does hit the Earth, scientists say there will be enough time to prepare for it and organize evacuations or even send a special mission, such as DART, to change the body's trajectory. But given the lack of sufficient data, it's too early to say.

Recall

On January 5, the asteroid 2020 BC6, which was considered "potentially dangerous," flew near the Earth.