Ukraine is harvesting a decent grain crop, but selling it is becoming increasingly difficult due to Russian strikes on ports, railways, and other logistics routes. There is currently a high probability that the grain may remain in storage instead of generating funds for farmers for the next sowing campaign.
The farms most at risk are those without their own storage facilities and forced to sell their produce to intermediaries at reduced prices. What could be the scale of grain accumulation, and what consequences could this have for the 2027 harvest? The CEO of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation (UAC), Pavlo Koval, explained to UNN.
The 2026 grain harvest — how much Ukraine has already collected and what volumes need to be exported
As of October 13, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 37.14 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, covering 65.2% of the planned area. According to Pavlo Koval's estimate, by October 15, up to 38 million tonnes had been collected from the fields. Separately, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, about 13.9 million tonnes of oilseed crops had been harvested, including sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans. It should be noted here that the previous state forecast projected a grain harvest of approximately 60.4 million tonnes.
Pavlo Koval explains that the discrepancy arose because of corn: its gross harvest may reach 30–31 million tonnes, but by mid-October only about 3.5 million tonnes had been harvested. Therefore, the final figures summarizing this year's grain harvest will emerge once farmers harvest this crop. And this is precisely where major problems begin.
"Due to the rain and high grain moisture, part of the harvest may remain in the fields until winter. Drying requires additional funds, which not every farm can afford," the expert warned.
Speaking about the wheat harvest, the UAC CEO estimated it at 26.2 million tonnes, of which approximately 12 million tonnes are planned for export. (For corn, the benchmark is 22 million tonnes of exports out of an expected production volume of 30 million tonnes.) However, these volumes represent export potential, because it is not enough to sell grain abroad — it must also be physically delivered to the buyer.
Maritime exports under threat — how much Ukrainian grain could remain in the country due to supply restrictions
According to the State Customs Service, as of October 16, since the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine had exported 5.929 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops. This is 24.9% less than during the corresponding period of the previous season.
Koval calculates that current shipments amount to approximately half of the required pace, given the size of the harvest. According to him, additional wheat stocks of 5–6 million tonnes could accumulate by the end of the season. If significant logistics restrictions persist during the period of mass corn deliveries, the risk of grain accumulation will increase sharply.
"The Danube route is of particular concern. In 2022, it made it possible to transport up to 2.5 million tonnes of cargo per month and partially offset restrictions on the operation of major seaports. Now it is being affected by strikes on terminals, infrastructure problems, and shipping disruptions. In the area of the Sulina Canal alone (the middle of the three major straits of the Danube Delta and the main navigable channel at the mouth of the Danube in Romania — ed.), about 150 grain vessels have accumulated," the expert said.
Rail crossings with the EU and road routes also cannot fully replace maritime transport: their capacity is limited, and transportation is more expensive. As a result, even when buyers are available, farmers cannot always ship their produce on time.
This season, Ukraine reduced wheat exports but increased corn exports12.08.26, 17:03
Will Ukraine have sufficient storage capacity for the harvest, and what will happen to the surplus?
As of the end of 2025, Ukraine’s total grain storage capacity was estimated at 52.67 million tonnes of simultaneous storage. However, it is important to understand that some storage facilities are already occupied, some are located far from producers, and grain transportation and elevator services cost money. Therefore, under the most difficult scenario, according to a source speaking to UNN, if the current pace of exports and corn accumulation is maintained, carryover stocks could reach 30–35 million tonnes. As a result, the grain may have to wait for sale, while keeping it throughout this period will require the farmer to have storage space and financing.
"Having grain in the storage facility does not yet guarantee money in the account," Pavlo Koval emphasized.
According to him, small and medium-sized farms often have only three options:
- pay for storage at an elevator;
- sell directly from the field at an unfavorable price;
- leave the produce in their own unsuitable facilities.
Each of them entails its own costs and risks.
Additionally, excess supply within the country will put pressure on purchase prices. Even if grain becomes more expensive on the global market, Ukrainian producers will not necessarily benefit, as higher logistics costs and transportation risks may absorb the difference.
Export restrictions and farmers’ losses — how the grain crisis will affect sown areas and grain production in 2027
Ukrainian farmers have already felt the consequences of the current difficulties during the autumn sowing campaign. In an exclusive comment to UNN , Pavlo Koval said that by mid-October, approximately 3.5 million hectares of winter wheat had been sown. If the area reaches 4 million hectares by the end of the campaign, he will consider that an acceptable result. The situation is worse with winter barley: according to the expert’s estimate, about 280,000 hectares have been sown, compared with approximately 500,000 hectares planned.
"Amid difficulties selling grain, producers may cut spending on fertilizers, crop protection products and technological operations, which will affect next year’s yields. Some farms will also revise their crop structure in favor of crops that have higher margins and require less logistics capacity," the UAC director general forecast.
Among such options, he named rapeseed and sunflower. However, according to him, changing the "cropping map" will not solve the problem of the destruction of export routes.
The situation is quite difficult. I do not want to say that it is catastrophic, but it is quite challenging
He emphasized that the most vulnerable remain small producers without their own transport or financial reserves. For them, a delay in selling grain may result in lower profits and the risk of being unable to finance the next sowing campaign. Therefore, if export restrictions continue, the Ukrainian economy could suffer a double blow: lower foreign-currency revenues now and weaker grain-production potential in 2027.
How Russian attacks threaten Ukraine’s exports and whether alternative routes exist
Russian attacks on Black Sea ports threaten to cause grain accumulation and losses for farmers. Whether there is an alternative to maritime exports and what will happen if restrictions persist was explained in an exclusive comment to UNN by TEUS logistics company owner and director Dmytro Kazanin.
According to the expert’s estimate, Ukraine needs to export about 5 million tonnes of grain per month to avoid accumulating excess stocks.
"When it is necessary to ship about five million tonnes per month, we are shipping approximately two and a half million," Kazanin said.
Instead, he estimates current shipment volumes at only 2.5 million tonnes: the shortfall amounts to nearly half of the requirement.
Overall statistics also point to a slowdown in exports. According to the State Customs Service, as of October 16, since the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine had exported 5.929 million tonnes of grain and pulses, 24.9% less than during the corresponding period of the previous season. The reason is that, due to higher transportation costs, farmers are forced to choose between selling at a loss and storing their crops.
Alternative export routes—can railways, road transport, and Danube ports replace the Black Sea ports?
At present, grain exports through the western borders, by rail, by truck, and via the Danube remain possible. But there is an important caveat: according to Kazanin's assessment, the combined capacity of these routes is insufficient to compensate for what Ukraine is losing because of the downtime at the Black Sea ports, which are constantly being attacked by the Russian armed forces.
"This cannot be compensated for. Our ports are designed (specifically—the editor) for this kind of work. All the border crossings and the Danube ports together cannot compensate for it," the logistics expert explained.
On the railway route that can be used to export grain, congestion is emerging, according to Kazanin. At crossings with EU countries, there are not enough European railcars to transfer grain from Ukrainian rolling stock. In addition, specific transshipment rules in the EU further complicate movement.
There are also problems with transporting agricultural cargo along the Danube.
"Danube shipping is being constrained by low water levels. Look, a barge with a capacity of 2,000 tonnes can load only about 1,000 tonnes in shallow sections in order to travel along the route to the Romanian port of Constanța. The movement of vessels from the Upper Danube to the Lower Danube is also limited," Dmytro Kazanin explained.
He clarified that some routes are nevertheless operating and cited his own company's experience as an example. Kazanin noted that in September, TEUS sent 72 containers of wheat to Indonesia via Gdańsk. At the same time, he immediately emphasized that this would not replace bulk shipments and would not significantly affect the global logistics problems that domestic farmers have faced this year.
More expensive logistics and loss of competitiveness—how Russian attacks are affecting the cost of Ukrainian grain exports
According to Kazanin's assessment, logistics costs have increased three- to fourfold recently. Since Ukrainian producers do not determine global grain prices, the additional costs of delivering it effectively reduce the amount that the farmer ultimately receives for their work.
Our farmer is losing income. Today, they have to sell grain at a loss because logistics costs have increased three- to fourfold
As an example, he cited a grain production cost of $150–160 per tonne, while sales revenue for a farm may amount to $120–125. If the situation does not change going forward, Dmytro Kazanin assumes that grain exports may become even more unprofitable. Moreover, Ukraine will feel the consequences of this as early as the next sowing season.
Due to a lack of funds, farmers are cutting back on fertilizer purchases. This could reduce yields in 2027, as well as export revenues and budget income. And because of unprofitable prices, some of the corn may remain in the fields over the winter altogether
The threat of grain accumulation—is it relevant for Ukraine, and why?
In response to questions from UNN journalists, Dmytro Kazanin explained that if the gap between the harvested crop and its exports—2.5 million tonnes per month—persists, it will mathematically amount to about 5 million tonnes after two months and 7.5 million tonnes after three. At the same time, the expert cautioned against equating delayed exports with the physical loss of grain. He emphasized that, for now, the issue is primarily the inability to deliver the necessary volumes to buyers on time.
"This is not about loss, but about the possibility of exporting it (the grain — Ed.). At present, there is no possibility of exporting the amount that is needed," he emphasized.
According to Kazanin, problems with exporting the harvest arise for Ukrainian farmers simultaneously in all directions: there is a shortage of railcars and railway capacity, transshipment at the border slows things down, while the Danube is constrained by shallow waters. Therefore, no single alternative route will save exports.
The available corridors need to be used simultaneously, along with the stable operation of Black Sea ports. Because prolonged restrictions could also affect next year's harvest
As a reminder
Russia is increasingly targeting Ukrainian grain export corridors in the Black Sea, increasing security risks for the entire region. Romania and Bulgaria are already asking NATO to strengthen protection against drones from the Russian Armed Forces.