Ukraine prepares for autumn COVID-19 surge: does the Ministry of Health predict a lockdown
Kyiv • UNN
Deputy Minister of Health Ihor Kuzin predicts an increase in COVID-19 incidence in late September – early October. Restrictive measures and lockdown are unlikely, as the indicators are significantly lower than last year.
In Ukraine, an increase in COVID-19 incidence is expected in late September - early October. It is unlikely that this will lead to any local anti-epidemic or restrictive measures. This was stated by Deputy Minister of Health Ihor Kuzin in an interview with the "Ye Rozmova" program, as reported by UNN.
Is a lockdown possible?
"We are still in the inter-epidemic period, that is, in the period before the rise in incidence. Most likely, the rise in incidence will await us by the end of September, possibly even by the beginning of October. Therefore, it is during this period that we will expect a real rise in COVID-19 incidence," Kuzin said.
He commented on whether a new lockdown is expected in Ukraine.
"Unlikely. Because if we look at the statistics we are registering compared to the same period last year, we see that there are 65% fewer cases now. Therefore, it is unlikely that this will lead to any local anti-epidemic, restrictive measures," Kuzin explained.
Kuzin reported that in 2024, throughout the entire epidemic season of incidence, from August to March, slightly more than 4.5 million Ukrainians contracted COVID-19.
"Even with such high indicators, no quarantine or anti-epidemic measures were introduced in the country's regions, because such incidence rates are normal, expected during the ARVI and flu season," Kuzin said.
When does the epidemic season for COVID-19 start now?
Kuzin noted that over the past few years, the configuration and the way COVID-19 and flu circulate in the world have significantly changed.
"Over the past 2-3 years, we have observed a stable trend, both in Ukraine and in the EU, in the USA and other countries, where peak incidence rates of COVID-19, or the beginning of the epidemic season for COVID-19, start a little earlier than we are used to registering it. Thus, we see that the first signs of a worsening epidemiological situation most often begin to appear in August. This has been a trend for the last few years. Throughout August, September, and even part of October, COVID-19 indeed gains increasing scale. After that, it transitions to other acute respiratory viral infections. That is, they occupy the main, key mass of new infection cases. These are usually RS viruses, adenoviruses, and other respiratory viruses, which usually proceed quite easily," Kuzin said.
He noted that by the end of the year, i.e., by December, by January, the circulation of the influenza virus appears.
"The circulation of the influenza virus most often ends by the end of March of the following year and essentially completes this entire epidemic season. Such dynamics will be characteristic this year as well. We observed such dynamics in previous years as well," Kuzin added.
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