The war is rapidly shrinking Ukraine's population, and even EU accession will not stop the demographic crisis - EUobserver
Kyiv • UNN
Ukraine's population has dropped to 28 million due to war and migration. Joining the EU may only accelerate the outflow of youth and labor abroad.
The war against Russia has accelerated the demographic crisis in Ukraine, and even potential accession to the European Union does not guarantee a halt to population decline. This was reported by EUobserver, according to UNN.
Details
According to Oleksandr Gladun, a demographer at the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the war has sharply worsened the trend of population decline that has been ongoing since 1993.
The war has significantly accelerated this process. According to our forecasts, the population will continue to shrink. The rate of this decline depends on when and under what conditions the war ends,
Ukraine's population has decreased by almost half
According to Gladun's estimates, at the beginning of 2026, about 28 million people lived in the government-controlled territory, whereas in 1991, the population of Ukraine was 51.7 million.
At the same time, the UN forecast predicts a decline in Ukraine's population to 15.3 million people by 2100.
As the expert notes, the war affects demographics not only through the deaths of military personnel and civilians but also through increased mortality from chronic diseases, stress, and problems with access to medicine. The birth rate is also falling sharply.
People are postponing the decision to have children. This is a natural reaction,
There are 5.6 million Ukrainian refugees abroad
According to the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), at the beginning of 2026, there were 5.6 million Ukrainian refugees abroad. More than 4 million more people are internally displaced persons.
More than 10 million people have left their homes, which is about 20% of the pre-war population,
The CES reported that in 2025 alone, about 300,000 people left Ukraine.
After the relaxation of travel rules in 2025, approximately 96,000 men aged 18 to 22 left the country.
Approximately one in seven young men aged 18 to 22 left the country after August,
Youth are increasingly less willing to return
According to Iryna Ippolitova, a senior researcher at CES, young Ukrainians are much less likely to plan a return home.
Young people under 35 are much less inclined to return to Ukraine than older people. The main reasons are integration in the host countries, jobs, salaries, and security risks,
The article also cites stories of young Ukrainians who are already building lives in France and Italy and do not see a stable future for themselves in Ukraine due to the war and economic problems.
EU accession could increase population outflow
Experts believe that Ukraine's accession to the European Union could both stimulate a partial return of citizens and increase labor migration.
For Ukraine, this will have a negative impact both demographically and economically. For the EU, it will most likely be positive: Ukraine has long been a supplier of labor for EU countries,