Russia's VAT hike will lead to the closure of 20% of order pick-up points - intelligence
Kyiv • UNN
According to the SVR, Russia's VAT increase will lead to the closure of up to 20% of order pick-up points in 2025-2026. This will cause an increase in prices on marketplaces and a drop in consumer demand.
The planned increase in value-added tax (VAT) in Russia will lead to a large-scale reduction in the network of order pick-up points. In 2025–2026, up to 20% of such points will close in the Russian Federation, UNN reports with reference to the Foreign Intelligence Service.
The increase in VAT by two percentage points will lead to a formal increase in prices on marketplaces by 1.7%. However, taking into account logistics, raw material costs, and trading platform commissions, the final price increase for consumers could range from 5% to 15%. And companies with a turnover of 60 to 240 million rubles, which will fall under the new rules, will be forced to raise prices by 10–25%
According to intelligence data, this is expected to reduce consumer demand, primarily in the segment of expensive goods: electronics, furniture, premium clothing. As a result of falling demand and rising costs, small franchise points with high rents and low traffic will be at risk.
Currently, there are about 208.4 thousand order pick-up points in the Russian Federation, of which 17.2 thousand are in Moscow and 7.8 thousand are in St. Petersburg. However, a change in the market model is predicted – large players with powerful logistics and automated parcel lockers will have an advantage, while small businesses will disappear. Such trends indicate further pressure on small and medium-sized businesses in Russia and an exacerbation of economic stagnation caused by tax changes, falling purchasing power, and rising costs.